Is Europe nearing a revolution?

Welcome to the site, Zazaban.
No, to answer the thread question.

It's encouraging but no I don't think it'll trump '68-'74, or even '79-'84 based on the past year or two. And in the UK things have pretty much stopped before they got started at least so far.

Phew... I'm in the middle of exams and assignments. The last thing I need now is a revolution.
all the best.
gregg.

How would one determine this? I'm actually kind of curious how one would try to gauge "how close to revolution" the world is, even though I don't think it can be quantified or determined.

Just curious...

What does movement mean?

and

Why do you think it looks fairly close?

I think that there's nothing wrong with the term 'movement'... Better than 'scene' and for me it represents the coming together of people working towards a common goal. It's the macro to the everyday micro that we engage in. I'll think about this some more as it's been a couple of days since I've had any sleep.
all the best.
gregg.

edit: added the macro and micro wank

Aww, such optimism. Give it time, you too can become a cynical, ranting anarchist. In all honesty, I hope you're right, but I think we've got a lot of legwork to do before your question becomes a reality. Can I recommend checking out the Wobblies: www.iww.org. They are the only worthwhile organization in the libertarian communist movement. (Kidding, don't worry.)

Aren't you on the email list?

Greggg, There's nothing wrong with the term in itself, but when applied to anarchist groups in 2007 it's a misnomer.

No, not in the slightest. There is a currently a very minor upswing in class struggle, but it's not even at early 1990s levels yet, let alone the 1960s, or 1917! Only a very small number of people are revolutionaries, and at the very least you can't have a revolution until a large proportion of the population wants one.

It seems more like France (and elsewhere in Europe) is facing the kind of 'rationalisation' of workers' rights, public services, benefits etc that began in the UK 20 years ago. Will workers there put up a better fight? If Sarkozy is as determined as two of his role models - Thatcher & Blair - it would probably take some unrest close to the scale of 68 to defeat his long-term project.

You're pretty much right there. Sarkozy has chosen to pretty much attack everyone at once, he's deliberately facing a massive battle, I'm not sure if he will win but it he does it will be a crushing defeat for the French working class. This is a fight that they cannot afford to lose. Sarkozy will be screwed if he doesn't win, but someone else will propose the same things and keep chipping away at conditions.

i reckon some shoul "take out" sarkozy

The number of strikes may not be as high as in the 70's, 80's but there have been some very important expressions of a new potential in the class struggle. The question of solidarity has become a more central question. Examples of this have been: the coming together of car workers from different companies and plants in Germany a few years ago, the solidarity strike at Heathrow in 2005, the huge solidarity shown for the students by workers in France last year, the holding of a mass daily assembly in the central plaza in Vigo (Spain) during the metal workers strike last year, or this year the demonstrations in Andalusia this year which tens of thousands of workers coming together to show their solidarity for the workers of the Delphi shipyards. This expressions of solidarity coming at the beginning of a new upsurge in the class struggle show a potential for even greater solidarity.
We have also seen strikes in several countries around the question of pensions with the generations coming together in order to struggle against these attacks. In the 60's, 70's and 80's there was still a weight of the generational conflict stirred up by the bourgeoisie. Clearly there is still a way to go before this solidarity becomes more generalised but the fact that the bourgeoisie's efforts to divided young and old over pensions has meet such resistance is an indication of a process of reflection upon the meaning of such attacks within the class, beyond the immediate interests of this or that workers or age group.
There is also the fact that these struggles have been unfolding at the same time as imperialist barbarity has become a direct question for the working class in the main concentrations of the working class. They are now faced with the parmanent threat of their children, siblings, relatives and those of friends becoming directly involved in this barbarity for years on end.
No the revolution is not around the corner, however the struggles of today are all part of the process of the development of the necessary conditions for the proletariat's ability to directly pose its revolutionary alternative to capitalism.
Anyone interested in reading a more developed analysis of the present upsurge of strikes internationally will find the following documents useful;
http://en.internationalism.org/ir/130/editorial
http://en.internationalism.org/ir/130/int-sit-resn

Well - the ICC will surely answer this question themselves.
But in my opinion this is how they always talk - no matter what the actual level or directions of the workers' struggles.
So I'm curious too.

We think that there is a reason for optimism at the moment. In our opinion there is a return to class struggle after the dark years of the nineties. Actually, I was speaking with an American who had just travelled across Europe the other day, and he said that most of the political people that he had met in Europe were depressed about the general situation. We on the other hand see reason for cautious optimism.
Devrim

that's your answer to everything

only until the brits go home

I don't think that either we, or the ICC are saying that revolution is around the corner. I think it is clear that there has been a change on an international level though. Maybe people in your age group don't remember how bad the 90s really were.

Devrim

I would concur with that.

So, Devrim, are you answering queries addressed to the ICC now? When's the merger?

As for France (and other Euro countries like Germany) I think it could go either way. This could be the beginning of a new era of struggles - or, if Sarkozy's project triumphs, it could be the beginning of a decisive defeat /new reaction that closes an era, in much the same way the UK Miners' Strike was. In worst case scenario, what we knew as the 90s may be only beginning in Europe.

i remember that show. Alex Mac too. Oh Yes.

BTW - that dick that was always climbing into clarissa's room, the grungy cunt - were they at it or what? I think she was just being an epic pricktease to the poor proto-emo fool. Like the best friend that is supposed to not know you'd drink their bathwater, but the real secret is that they relish your hopeless devotion.

No, it is just something that we say too.

Devrim

Guy....

We are not known for being eternal optimists. We see the development of the class struggle not as a linear process, but as a wave like form; periods of developing struggles followed by period of downturn. That is an extremely crude way of expressing it, but I do not have much time. Thus for us the 1990's were a period of a profound reflux within the class. In the period after 1968 there had been a process of several waves of international struggles. With the collapse of the old block system this dynamic was halted because the class was faced with events of tremendous historical importance which appeared to turn every thing on its head at an international level, and there was the huge anti-communism campaign. Along with this there were the wars in the Gulf and above all the horror of the Balkans wars in the 1990's. All of which shock the proletariats confidence in itself. Since 2003 we have seen large scale manifestations of the overcoming of this situation.

The most telling remark that I have heard concerning this recently came from a radio4 program that I heard recently (I've had a look on thr R4 website so that I could provide a link, but I couldn't remember the name of the actual broadcast and so couldn't locate it).

Basically the interview was with an ex-special forces Australian who specialises in counter-insurgency warfare, and the primary topic was 'coaltion' attitudes and strategy implemented iniraq, afghanistan and the war on terror generally. By counter insurgency they generally focussed upon Britain’s ‘Hearts and Minds’ model for counterinsurgency that has been a well established military credo since the late 1940s where it was first applied in Malaya (1948-1960) and Northern Ireland (1969-2007). These were held up as examples to be applied to the current insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq. To which our intrepid aussie was an eager apologist and subscriber to these tactics, based largely on psy-ops and social engineering through cultural immersion. However I don't wanna carp on to much about that here (google it). This aussie (sorry can't remember name) is military advisor to several western states on the matter of counter-insurgency, and after he had re-iterated the official manufactured dichotomy of freedom loving democracy vs al qaeda, and admitted that the sunni-shia in-fighting centred in iraq was the normal, preferred counter insurgency tactic to divide and conquer, causing the 'enemy' to destroy itself and its own social framework and territory, he was asked where he thought the counter-insurgency hotspots over the next 10 years would be.

After prophesysing Indonesia as a potential future threat to our dearly held western values, followed by somewhere else which I'm ashamed to say I can't recall right now (I shall do a bit more research and add addendum later), his third location was western europe, where he said that the scope for social upheaval and anti-government sentiment was causing some states to sit up and take notice- which would infer take precautionary measures, would it not?

But what would make the western governments be so concerned? Concerned enough to form europol (with a division specifically for the monitoring of anarchists and autonomen), concerned enough to pass 'anti-terror' laws with a remit so vague that virtually anything critical of government can lead to the application of draconian arrest and detention techniques, concerned enough to target and arrest members of the anarchist black cross all over europe, concerned enough to speed up the eviction, dismantling and destruction of all autonomous places and squats all over europe ( berlin and denmark especially spring to mind, but those of us who squat can see more and more options denied to us and criminalised). Just recently in both italy and spain several comrades have been kidnapped and tortured, and yes i mean tortured, by the state.

But maybe they have reason to be worried. At least 5,000 of us march at rostock. Then there is the battle for Ungomhudeset in Denmark, followed by the largest squatting action of recent times, when thousands attempted to storm and occupy a single building. The anti-fascist victory in switzerland recently. There is the class war 'toffs out' in london. Not my cuppa tea either, but at least it is anarchists taking to the streets with their own agenda. Then there is the demo in Berlin on Ded 8th. Another anarchist led demo demanding the right to auto organisation, an end to the evictions of social centres and against the encroaching police state. Again, an anarchist inspired demo, organised by anarchists, a chance to demonstrate anarchist praxis, rather than just tail ending some reformist lefties who may sometimes wish for the same ends, but ultimately think a dialogue with power will achieve their aims.

So, all our masters and their thinktanks, advisors and specialists seem to consider it a real possibility, they have already set counterbalances in effect. So, in answer to your question, there are actually 3 possible answers- the movement could get stronger, only to be crushed by a state counter insurgency plan already on the drawing table. Or it could never happen due to those defeatist fools who have views similar to some on this thread. Or we could realise that we are viewed as a growing potential threat and get involved, organise, get involved in direct action- away from your pc screen (i only log on once every week or couple of weeks) and make the revolution happen. After all at the end of the day it has to come from you- you have to start it, otherwise you end up sitting round like all these lefty dinosaurs waiting for the vanguard to appear and lead the working class to victory. Is europe nearing a revolution? As far as I'm concerned mate we're already in one

I think the above is a completely wrong-headed way of looking at things. Basically it's focussing on the activities of a detached subculture - anarchists, involving a maximum of a few thousand people.

Anarchists aren't supposed to thing that so that the activities of a few thousand "enlightened" politicos is what makes social change happen - this actually goes against what you are saying in the paragraph I quote above.

We are not in a revolution at all, but I do believe there is an upswing in struggle, the number of strike days this year is going to be well up on the past few years at least, which is a very positive sign. Last year they were well up on 2005 - the lowest ever (754,500, up from 157,400).

The escalation of struggle in Europe, like others have said, I think is different, because they're defensive struggles provoked by huge attacks on workers, like those here in the 1980s which largely broke workers' organisation. The situation in the 3rd world seems positive, where it seems workers are really going on the offensive in the countries which have won the "race to the bottom" of wages and conditions, like Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, and others like Egypt.

Will be good to see the ILO strike stats for this year...

Agree with John about chimp23's post. Not only does it concentrate on a detached subculture (though we should not be dismissed because this milieu is made up of people who want to get rid of capitalism), but does not seem to see that there have been very important workers' movements. Movements that have served to draw together workers from different sectors and have enable tens of thousands of younger workers with little experience of struggle to gain an important experience. This does not mean revolution is around the corner, but that the international proletariat is engaged in a process of developing its self-confidence and consciousness. An essential part of this process, if it is going to lead to even higher levels of struggles, is the politization of the struggles i.e., the linking of the present struggles with the longer-term need to put an end to capitalism. The proletariat to make the revolution will need to developed its self-confidence and awareness that it has an alternative to the barbarity of capitalism, this will demand a whole process of politization of the class internationally.