Economic crisis

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It seems like Carousel's irrelevant comments unfortunately prevent a "play-by-play" of the present unfolding events. I think such a pay-by-play would be at least interesting.

The US stock market experienced a very high level of volatility last week, going down or up by several percentage points each day. This certainly would give one the idea that financial markets are "troubled". However, behind this, there is the corporate debt and finance markets. Here, there seems to be real trouble. The "auction rate bond" has ceased to function. This market financed, among others, us cities and student loan companies. Some of these entities can sell their bonds in other ways but there have been reports of student loans being.
Also, from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin:

Quote:
March 21 – Wall Street Journal (David Enrich, Liz Rappaport and Liam Pleven): “Main Street is about to feel another tremor from Wall Street. CIT Group Inc. said Thursday that its normal sources of funding have dried up because of the credit crisis, forcing the… company to draw down its entire $7.3 billion line of backup credit. That could mean trouble for commercial borrowers, since CIT will shrink its lending operations and sell assets in order to conserve cash. ‘We recognize that, given the current market environment, we need to run a smaller company,’ said Jeffrey Peek, CIT's chief executive. While it isn’t a bank, CIT is a major lender that specializes in providing financing to companies of all sizes that often can’t get all the capital they want from traditional banks. With customers in more than 30 industries and 50 countries, CIT had managed assets of $83.2bn as of Dec. 31… Since CIT can’t fund its operations with bank deposits, it typically relies on a combination of financing including short-term borrowing known as commercial paper as well as asset backed markets and the corporate bond market.”

This kind of event could lead to a series of cascading failures through-out the US economy as companies stop being able to obtain the credit they normally operate with. But Federal Reserve is actively intervening to prevent such events. Thus we have a stock market which seems to flicker on and off.

Here's a link to a possible truckers strike:
http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2008/03/19/news/iowa/doc47e03e9ea03bd427238845.txt?sPos=3
-- Since they are owner/operators, some of the demands sound kind of reactionary - an end to gasoline taxes rather than an increase in payments to load. But the problem seems pretty hard to avoid. From the above article: “They ought to strike,” he said. “We all ought to. They lose money every day they go out.”

Worth thinking about...

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Admin - derailing/baiting removed

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Mikus, communists welcome the economic crisis of capitalism. There is no perspective of revolution without it.
Joseph K, I asked you the question on another post if you thought there was a crisis of capitalism and if so how was it expressed. I don't think you answered?
It would be wrong to state categorically that the bourgeoisie had no room to manoeuvre over the crisis, but it's looking more and more that way in the longer term. The Fed are leading the way in state capitalist measures and will continue to fuel the crisis by throwing monies and credit at the various expressions and symptoms of it - while an attack on the fundamental problem, the saturation of the world market, is impossible. The very actions of the Fed (and other centralised banks) can only make the situation worse in the longer term and also tend to make the situation more combustible (see the Hayle to Helston analogy above). Some financial specialists (sic) are talking about the Fed "helicoptering in money". I think the analogy is with the US's actions in Afghanistan when, in order to back its local gangsters, the CIA was tasked with taking suitcases full of greenbacks by Blackhawks in order to buy their local gangsters. Such an action on the financial level can only make the situation more precarious.

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they've been 'helicoptering in money' for some time now, not only in huge quantities but very recently widened the area that their helicoptering, so to speak

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baboon wrote:
Joseph K, I asked you the question on another post if you thought there was a crisis of capitalism and if so how was it expressed. I don't think you answered?

quite possibly not, i'm very busy in the real world at the moment so i'm not writing much of substance here. briefly, i think crises are recurrent, and have been a feature of capitalism from the start. However clearly these express themselves differently and have different implications is differerent periods, and one could certainly argue that in a globalised digitised economy with masses of ficticious/financial capital that crises have more serious implications for captialism than ever before, and raise the question of overthrowing capitalism internationally like never before.

actually, i might be starting a new job in the credit industry soon which might give some insights. pointless work to pay the bills, how decadent wink

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i wouldn't disagree with that in general Joseph, though I wouldn't think that digitisation has any specific consequences.
Thanks for that. What a time to start to working in the credit business.

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One aspect not divorced from this thread is the question of China, both from the point of view of it being a "counter" to the global economic crisis and also from the development of class struggle.
The news from China is mostly all about Tibet and the Olympic Games. But in the Pearl River Delta, according to Newsnight, Weds., 26th, ten thousand factories have closed in the last months. They have closed because they can't afford to pay the increasing labour costs (most of these factories were working a six-day week with compulsory overtime - the latter mostly unpaid). In the Wuhan heavy industry region, strikes have increased as the old "jobs for life" tradition has all but disappeared.
In the Pearl River Delta, there's at least one major strike involving thousands of workers every day. Unions, in response to this growing militancy and confrontations, are moving to the "left". There's a lot of room for manoeuvre here in that most unions are either run by the individual bosses or the party cadres. But this is still a significant development.
Also significant, and reported on the same Newsnight, is the coming together and joint action by both migrant workers from the country and city workers.

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baboon wrote:
Mikus, communists welcome the economic crisis of capitalism. There is no perspective of revolution without it.

There unfortunately won't be a perspective of revolution with it, either. (At least not in this specific one if it comes to pass.) Thus I prefer not to lose my job and I prefer that working class living standards aren't severely cut.

Do you agitate workers around this issue? "God bless the crisis!" or something? I don't really understand what it means to "welcome" an economic crisis when it's something that we really have no effect on (at the moment). It would be akin to "welcoming" rain, or snow, or some other natural process. It's a personal issue, not a political one. (The welcoming, that is. Obviously the crisis itself is a political issue.)

And what do you mean by "communists welcome the economic crisis of capitalism"? Is this something you have observed about communists, or is it more like "If you don't welcome the economic crisis of capitalism you are not a communist" ?

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i can't stand that kind of crap, people wishing the massive asymetrical impacts of a massive economic crisis/recession upon people's lives just in the hope that their fringe ideas will get picked up and perhaps adhered to by a handful of additional people, the contempt that it shows for humanity is fucking disdainful

it also lays bare the complete and utter impotence of said movements in the first place

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Obviously an economic crisis doesn't guarantee a revolution, but without some form of crisis (I'd include war here) there's no reason at all for the proletariat to revolt. As long as capitalism can offer us palliatives (or at least the illusions of them) to soothe our exploitation, the system will survive. It's only when existence becomes unbearable for the working that it rises up against its oppressors. Even then, this is not always the case. After all, the Great Depression produced no revolutionary upsurge and the appalling conditions of workers in the 3rd world haven't automatically led to revolution either. Nonetheless, crisis (again in the broad sense) provides the material basis for such a revolt. So I suppose you could say we welcome it is in that sense.

But I have to admit the idea of "welcoming" the crisis doesn't sit completely comfortably with me. Are we welcoming the misery that this will inflict on hundreds of thousands of people? I would hope not. Or are we welcoming the revolutionary response that (we hope) this misery will generate? I think these are rather distinct things.

On a personal level though, I have to admit to the guilty pleasure at watching the bourgeoisie scurry around like ants trying to shore up their sorry mess of a system.

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but without some form of crisis (I'd include war here) there's no reason at all for the proletariat to revolt.

so basically what your saying is that although the majority of people are quite content & happy to live their lives how they do at the moment, you are not happy with that, so you would welcome any change that would plunge those once (relatively) happy lives into a pittiful state so that they may be somewhat more disposed to your way of 'thinking'

if you genuinely had any any concern for the 'proletariat' surely you would wish for no crisis to arise so that they could continue to lead their lives in the way that they've so far clearly demonstrated that they would like to

face facts, the working class have let you down, your problem - not theirs

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Oisleep, did you miss the bit of my post that said "But I have to admit the idea of "welcoming" the crisis doesn't sit completely comfortably with me. Are we welcoming the misery that this will inflict on hundreds of thousands of people? I would hope not"?

Personally, I'd be more than happy if capitalism really was the paradise on earth the bourgeoisie claims it is. I don't welcome crisis and misery because it will get rid of capitalism. I want to get rid of capitalism because more and more crisis and misery is all it has to offer us.

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but the point remains, your happy to wish upon a situation that is not in crisis, a crisis which will have a massively asymetrical impact on the population, purely so a few more people come across to your line of thinking

thing is i'm sure you will get your crisis in the forseable future, however i do not share your optimism that the resultant social & economic method of organising what's left of society will be even anywhere as near as progressive as the one we live in at the moment, let alone approaching that of social democracy

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but the point remains, your happy to wish upon a situation that is not in crisis, a crisis which will have a massively asymetrical impact on the population, purely so a few more people come across to your line of thinking

My only point is that without such a crisis, revolution is impossible. If you want to get rid of capitalism then you have to accept the necessity of such a crisis. Of course, the reason most people want to get rid of capitalism in the first place is precisely because of the misery it creates.

Quote:
thing is i'm sure you will get your crisis in the forseable future, however i do not share your optimism that the resultant social & economic method of organising what's left of society will be even anywhere as near as progressive as the one we live in at the moment, let alone approaching that of social democracy

That is a slightly different issue. Essentially, you're talking about the choice between socialism or barbarism.
The moments of crisis in past history have given us World War 1 but they also gave us the great revolutionary waves that rose in direct response to the war and put an end to it and nearly brought down the whole system. The next major crisis gave us WW2 but the proletariat's failure to respond showed us exactly what the capitalism system had to offer: genocide and devastation followed by decades of "cold war" where people starved as unprecedented amounts of resources were pumped into weapons capable of destroying the planet. That's the best capitalism has to offer us and why we need to get rid of it, don't you think?

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Obviously an economic crisis doesn't guarantee a revolution, but without some form of crisis (I'd include war here) there's no reason at all for the proletariat to revolt.

Ecoomistic sub-leninist nonsense: the proletariat revolts every day against capital, cutting corners at work, taking sickies organising go slows and strikes, the revolution is an extension of this everyday revolt to the point that the social relationships that make up capitalism cease to have control over peoples lives. The revoluton is not a crude calculable reaction to some finiancial crisis in capitalism, revolution is the refusal to accept the basic social relations that capital imposes upon us, it is a revolt against waged labour itself, not ''poverty'' or ''crisis'' or ''war''.

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Ecoomistic sub-leninist nonsense: the proletariat revolts every day against capital, cutting corners at work, taking sickies organising go slows and strikes, the revolution is an extension of this everyday revolt to the point that the social relationships that make up capitalism cease to have control over peoples lives. The revoluton is not a crude calculable reaction to some finiancial crisis in capitalism, revolution is the refusal to accept the basic social relations that capital imposes upon us, it is a revolt against waged labour itself, not ''poverty'' or ''crisis'' or ''war''.

There is a vast qualitative difference between the defensive struggle of the working class for immediate demands and the revolutionary struggle against capitalism, even if they spring from the same class interest. Taking sickies and cutting corners (which is done as often under management pressure in any case) are purely individual responses to the condition of the working class. Strikes and go-slows are a collective response to the system but they almost always take place in the face of intolerable demands from management, i.e. direct attacks on the proletariat's living and working conditions. People don't go on strike for fun, for goodness sake!

The revolution is indeed a revolt against waged labour (and, in fact, the entire commodity form) but this takes place not because of some idealistic aversion to such things but because the living conditions of the proletariat demand it i.e. because waged labour is the foundation of a system that means nothing but poverty, crisis and war.

I would agree that the revolution won't be the response to a particular financial crisis but rather to the broader economic and social crisis of capitalism, of which the current financial crisis is only an episode.

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Wish? "wish"? What's "wishing" got to do with anything?
What do you think about the situation in China oisleep? There are elements those pose China as the saviour of the world economy. What do you think about that? What do you think about migrant and city workers unifying their struggles? What would be your positions on the t rade unions in China?

The economic crisis of capitalism is ineluctable. You want misery? Just open your eyes and look around. It may not be right on your doorstep but misery surrounds you and it gets more expansive and deeper by the day. But communists, who welcome the economic crisis of capitalism, do not only see "misery in misery", but the perspective of a new society. The proletariat has already demonstrated its revolutionary potential and it goes somewhat beyond "taking sickies" and the like.

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oisleep wrote:
but the point remains, your happy to wish upon a situation that is not in crisis, a crisis which will have a massively asymetrical impact on the population, purely so a few more people come across to your line of thinking

thing is i'm sure you will get your crisis in the forseable future, however i do not share your optimism that the resultant social & economic method of organising what's left of society will be even anywhere as near as progressive as the one we live in at the moment, let alone approaching that of social democracy

What if crisis doesn't happen? Should we welcome and celebrate the non-crisis moments of capitalism? Celebrate what is on the surface 'peaceful' in some parts of the world? The normal everyday is having a massive impact on the population you so wish to protect, but communism is not a charitable ideology about 'helping people'. Leave that for the Catholics.

I care about myself and my friends, and I want to see this shit destroyed. I cannot see capitalism being destroyed outside of the space or window that may be opened by crisis and the response to it. So yes, I welcome the crisis.

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baboon wrote:
Wish? "wish"? What's "wishing" got to do with anything?
What do you think about the situation in China oisleep? There are elements those pose China as the saviour of the world economy. What do you think about that? What do you think about migrant and city workers unifying their struggles? What would be your positions on the t rade unions in China?

The economic crisis of capitalism is ineluctable. You want misery? Just open your eyes and look around. It may not be right on your doorstep but misery surrounds you and it gets more expansive and deeper by the day. But communists, who welcome the economic crisis of capitalism, do not only see "misery in misery", but the perspective of a new society. The proletariat has already demonstrated its revolutionary potential and it goes somewhat beyond "taking sickies" and the like.

unlike most of you loons i don't have to have a position on every single event in the far flung world, mainly because i'm in fuck all position to do anything about it (just like youse)

misery certainly does surround us with you lot wishing irreverisble doom on the majority of the population

the proletariat have demonstrated that they are content to be bought off by consumer capitalism (and the same will happen in china), like it or not it offers them far far more than your nonsense would even come close to, i'm no supporter of capitalism, but i'm a realist, something you should consider

if you seriously think any social & economic system that rises from the ashes of capitalism once the multidtude of crisises that will face the earth over the next 50 odd years have unfolded will be anything remotely progressive like then you need to have a long hard think about the world around you, it's not me that needs to open my eyes, it's you

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yoshomon wrote:
oisleep wrote:
but the point remains, your happy to wish upon a situation that is not in crisis, a crisis which will have a massively asymetrical impact on the population, purely so a few more people come across to your line of thinking

thing is i'm sure you will get your crisis in the forseable future, however i do not share your optimism that the resultant social & economic method of organising what's left of society will be even anywhere as near as progressive as the one we live in at the moment, let alone approaching that of social democracy

What if crisis doesn't happen? Should we welcome and celebrate the non-crisis moments of capitalism? Celebrate what is on the surface 'peaceful' in some parts of the world? The normal everyday is having a massive impact on the population you so wish to protect, but communism is not a charitable ideology about 'helping people'. Leave that for the Catholics.

I care about myself and my friends, and I want to see this shit destroyed. I cannot see capitalism being destroyed outside of the space or window that may be opened by crisis and the response to it. So yes, I welcome the crisis.

same reply goes to you

open your eyes, realise it's not the 19th century anymore, look at the things today that the theorists of that period could not have ever even contemplated at the time, and have a think about what your wishing for

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friedman may have been a cunt, but he was bang on with this

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Only a crisis, real or perceived, produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable.

and let's face it, the ideas that we all have & proscribe to are nowhere even close to be lying around at the time of crisis - wishing on the crisis without that is completely hatstand, and to me seems to be the lazy way to try and approach social change, scrap all the groundwork and hope the crisis does it for you, well have a look back at previous crises and see what happened

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Since I don't think revolution will come out of crisis, barring an already strong level of working class self-organization, I don't welcome it. I'm rather scared by it in fact. I imagine most workers are. I think we can expect to see reactionary ideology make a resurgence, even amongst the working class, in the midst of any coming crisis. If the working class is not already prepared it will just get beaten up more badly than it has been for the last 30 years. That is not appealing to me.

I guess the issue is really that of spontaneism. I don't think the spontaneists' wishes will be fulfilled by crisis. Previous crises which sparked more open class struggle already had a relatively high level of working class organizaiton. We don't have that now. To expect the same social outcome as, say, 1917, when the general situation of the working class (ideologically and organizationally) is completely different is nothing more than wishful thinking.

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oisleep wrote:
friedman may have been a cunt, but he was bang on with this
Quote:
Only a crisis, real or perceived, produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable.

and let's face it, the ideas that we all have & proscribe to are nowhere even close to be lying around at the time of crisis - wishing on the crisis without that is completely hatstand, and to me seems to be the lazy way to try and approach social change, scrap all the groundwork and hope the crisis does it for you, well have a look back at previous crises and see what happened

Actually I agree with all of this. You do seem to accept the necessity of crisis as a starting point for radical social change. And I agree with you that the groundwork has to be done now; we may disagree about the content of that groundwork, but would both probably accept that spreading revolutionary ideas is a key component of it it. And no one on this thread is arguing that the crisis automatically produces revolutionary consciousness. That would indeed be 'spontaneism'.

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And it came to pass that The Great Accumulator sauntered across the globe, hands thrust well down into his pockets, fondling much ill-gotten paper gold (lately called dollars), surveying the full majesty of his labour power spread below it. And the Law was writ large and it did verily prevail upon all to “Amass! Amass! Amass!” Lurking deep within its soul was the dark, dark secret, known only to the Prophet Rate, who proclaimed to the Inner Circle: “Woe is me, I am fallen”. This did lead to much anguish and gnashing of teeth, until in a single moment the revered Accumulator was pitched into the Abyss of the Surplus Shortage. And lo! The End was no longer nigh, but was now in the Final Crisis. The Reserve Army did grow mightily, even whilst all around it swirled vast multitudes of commodities, all unspent and unrealised. But contrary to all expectations, from the maelstrom of the Breakdown there emerged as by a miracle – at least, no mortal hand was observed – a magnificent New Beginning. And all was at peace. Repeat together: “Aaah”.
In this ancient, almost biblical tale, some of you may recognise the parody of Grossman’s breakdown theory of capitalist accumulation, as purveyed by some of his least-informed critics. It was (is?) commonly thought that he saw capitalism as destined to collapse with mathematical precision in 35 years, and we could all keep our eyes peeled for the four horsemen, then step into the apocalyptic breach left vacant by the outgoing capitalism. Mattick revealed it as the caricature it was, in “The Permanent Crisis” (1934). I found it a revelation (waxing biblical again) when I recently came across it, and decided to make it available on Libcom.org. (The advertising blurb unfortunately perpetuates the myth, depicting it as analysing the “dynamics behind the inevitable downfall”. Also unfortunate is the missing table formatting– pretty crucial – which I hope Libcom will soon enable me to resolve).
I find it surprising that none of the discussion on this thread has referred to the falling rate of profit. I would not expect it from ICC contributors (although I hear that the ICC is recalibrating its fundamentals to place “more emphasis” on the rate of profit as against saturated markets), but cannot understand the reticence of others. In particular, where is the CWO in this discussion? Or is economic crisis merely to be treated as a problem for the City/Wall St/the IMF? And what about Pannekoek’s point that “the emancipation of the proletariat is the collapse of capitalism”? To what extent are Libcommers talking to themselves rather than to outsiders having a tentative, exploratory look?

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Thanks for pointing out this text, Berrot. I have printed it out and will try to comment on it when I get some more time.

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And no one on this thread is arguing that the crisis automatically produces revolutionary consciousness

indeed, which is why it's even more stupid that some of the arguments being put forward seem to contain an axiomatic view that a crisis will not only bring about a revolution, but one that is progressive in nature (contrary to all historical examples failing to do so)

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indeed, which is why it's even more stupid that some of the arguments being put forward seem to contain an axiomatic view that a crisis will not only bring about a revolution, but one that is progressive in nature (contrary to all historical examples failing to do so)

Except no-one has actually done this. Crisis opens up the possibility of revolution, it doesn't guarantee it. But without crisis there is no possibility whatsoever.

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your going about it arse before tit though as i've said previously, welcoming crisis when the only ideas that are lying around at the time it will happen are ones which are diamatrically oppossed to what you are actually trying to push is plain stupid (not to mention the complete ignoral of the resultant impact of environmental & resource problems that will characterise any coming crisis), it will only ensure you become yet further away from where you want to get to

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your going about it arse before tit though as i've said previously, welcoming crisis when the only ideas that are lying around at the time it will happen are ones which are diamatrically oppossed to what you are actually trying to push is plain stupid (not to mention the complete ignoral of the resultant impact of environmental & resource problems that will characterise any coming crisis), it will only ensure you become yet further away from where you want to get to

What makes you think I'm ignorant of the problems the current phase of crisis will bring? The point is that all these symptoms - crisis, resource problems, war, general social disaster - are inevitable under capitalism anyway. There's only one way to stop these and that's to get rid of capitalism. The choice facing humanity - and most especially the working class - is socialism or barbarism, revolution of the annihilation of society. The only positive aspect of the crisis it that it shows the barbarism option in naked clarity.

You're also wrong about the "only ideas" around being reactionary. The very fact we're having this discussion on a community dedicated to that purpose demonstrates that! And this isn't the only place it's happening - it's beginning to happen even in my workplace (and that's specifically stimulated by the escalating cost of living). Bourgeois ideology is not the only game in town - certainly not yet anyway.