By that, I don't mean that I can't see the logic of a secular tendency for the TCC to rise. As productivity increases, the amount of raw materials consumed in the production of material goods and deliverance of services, in order to employ a given amount of labour, must necessarily increase. That's not a full worked out demonstration,
Ocelot, maybe I don't understand your argument but are you viewing TCC as quantity measured by something other than labor value? What I get from your earlier Marx quote and Andy and Oisleep's thorough discussion is that TCC would be only measured by value. TCC could refer broadly to current technological conditions but the only quantitative measure you have in Marx's discussions seems to be value. This allows the correlation between VCC and TCC to be "strict" (since it follows more or less by definition).
The variations between TCC and OCC which Oisleep's multiple Marx quotes describe seems to all involves measuring TCC this way. IE, It seems like TCC refers to material processes but is still not measured by immediate physical material such as weight or volume.
In my mind, at the total societal level, the distinction between the OCC and the VCC largely collapses and they are almost one and the same thing, as there is no 'outside' at that level - everything is internal and therefore driven by the overall change of the TCC of society (poor choice of phrase there as I know there's no such thing, but hopefully you get what i mean).
To crudely paraphrase oisleep: OCC would be "socially necessary" VCC. Thus the differences between these quantities don't relate directly to the material processes of production.
Now whether VCC increases over times seems to be a different question. Answering that would involve a complex study of multiple industries and the changes in their technical compositions. I would find that an interesting discussion but keep in mind that it's the large field to consider: there is the question of empirical data, the dynamics of whatever Marxian model one finds compelling and how these fit together. Among other knotty problems; there certainly have been some industries where VCC has decreased and others where it has increased and I would argue two such changes don't necessary "add up" in a linear fashion.
Over time, England, Germany, the USA, Russia, and now Brazil, India and - last but never least - China, have made the transition from pre-industrial to state-of-the-art, cutting edge industrial power. If the VCC associated with fixed (and circulating constant) capital was increasing over time, then it should take each country more and more years to effect this transition.
If means of production can be produced in such a fashion that they can be used in a shorter time frame, it would be possible to more quickly produce means-of-production but that wouldn't automatically imply that was lower VCC. As a not-intended-to-be-realist example, If a capitalist switched to using a cheap aluminum machine that lasted a shorted time and could made more quickly, then he could get up-and-running more quickly but he might still have higher ratio of machines-as-embodied-labor-to-living labor than previously if fewer workers were needed to tend each machine or if the machines wore out quickly enough. So these advances in technology could still mean a capitalist employed more labor value as material than as living labor. IE, your argument above isn't necessarily compelling (though perhaps you meant it as suggestive).
To ramble on about the examples you mention (without claim here to support or contradict your points). Russia's industrialization was never at the technical level of the West and certainly depended on the ability of the Stalinists to mobilize massive amount of labor (as recall, the book Behind The Urals gives an interesting discussion of how ideological fervor gave rise to workers literally starving while they built machinery). The ability of the USA to quickly industrialize was very much helped by its large scale. I actually don't think China industrialized in an equivalent fashion to the US in the 19th century. Rather, China has become a huge assembly point for a global production process. This is why China can run a trade deficit even though it remains the primary source of the world's finished goods. The iPad2 was assembled in China but using a processor made in Texas by Samsung (I don't know the current situation is). China also had quite a bit of (backward) heavy industry whose monetary value possibly didn't reflect its embodied labor even discounted for its technological backwardness. And I believe China's transformation also involved the direct importing of machinery.
But as I said, a full survey of all these factors would be major undertaking.
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humph! That's gratitude for you.......
noticed the similarity between the two texts - not quite word for word but close in parts.
the closing paragraph of the chapter in "The Value of Marx" is relevant here
so the secular tendency of the VCC is contingent on how much technical change cheapens the elements of constant capital. critically, the changes in the value of inputs (and the OCC) are realised in turnover periods subsequent to the OCC raising capital investment.
raises questions on if LTRPF can be considered a secular trend or not. Saad-Filho, Fine and Weeks argue not. sometimes, Marx appears to argue it does, others not IIRC