2016 U.S. Presidential election

748 posts / 0 new
Last post
Juan Conatz's picture
Juan Conatz
Offline
Joined: 29-04-08
Nov 9 2016 05:27

About to head to bed, but it looks like Trump has it. One of the biggest upsets in American political history I'm sure. Virtually all the polls were wrong.

Hieronymous's picture
Hieronymous
Offline
Joined: 27-07-07
Nov 9 2016 06:19
Juan Conatz wrote:
About to head to bed, but it looks like Trump has it. One of the biggest upsets in American political history I'm sure. Virtually all the polls were wrong.

Or are the polls just the tail waging the dog and didn't want Trump?

Hence the Dow plunged 600 points today at the prospect of President Trump.

Juan Conatz's picture
Juan Conatz
Offline
Joined: 29-04-08
Nov 9 2016 06:22

I don't know what you mean by that. Are you saying that the polls were fixed or tilted by media outlets?

Hieronymous's picture
Hieronymous
Offline
Joined: 27-07-07
Nov 9 2016 06:49

I was just surfing around on the 'net and saw a New York Times story critiquing -- albeit mildly -- the questioning methods of polls. It simply said many on the fence didn't want to own up to supporting Trump, lest they be labeled "racists" and "misogynists." A little exaggerated, perhaps, but touching on an element of truth.

Shit, can't find the same article again . . .

jesuithitsquad's picture
jesuithitsquad
Offline
Joined: 11-10-08
Nov 9 2016 08:29

Donald Trump didn't just beat Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party tonight. He also broke the Republican Establishment and all of the accumulated knowledge of political science. What ends up rising from the ashes is beyond my understanding at the moment.

I wrote this for non commies so a lot of it will seem like preaching to the choir here, but it's been a long day so I'm just gonna C&P and leave it at that for now.

As depressing as it actually is to think there are enough racists for tonight to be even a possibility, it's important to have some context:

1) On-going institutional racism at every level of government is both bipartisan and exponentially more dangerous to the daily lives of people of color
than Trump or his supporters ever could be.

2) Knowing that the electorate is roughly 50% white, it's tempting to think that there are a lot more racists out there than anyone thought. Keep in mind that the electorate is not the entire population. Many people do not, did not, and never will vote. And before blaming non-voters' apathy, ask-did HRC try to do anything to appeal to them?

Most non-voters are much more concerned about keeping their lights on and feeding their kids than voting for a president. Because no president ever has and no president likely ever will do *anything* to help ameliorate their circumstances.

3) The role of social media algorithms cannot be overstated. Trumpists-- *just like you* --rarely see information that challenges their worldview

4) This is just part of the larger rise of a worldwide far-right movement of Authoritarian Nationalists.
While the rise of the far right is totally terrifying, the cancer is now out in the open as opposed to it being hidden, difficult to find, and hard to cut out.

5) The answer to fighting back has nothing to do with 2018 or 2020. The fightback begins 1st thing tomorrow morning when you go to work or school.
Make sure to give coworkers who are people of color the opportunity to talk about how they feel.

Listen to what they say.

Find out if you can do anything to help them feel safer.

Then start organizing to make things better.

If we have power as agents of change it's in our workplaces & neighborhoods, working to rebuild the old concept of an injury to one is injury to all.

teh
Offline
Joined: 15-06-09
Nov 9 2016 08:44
Juan Conatz wrote:
I don't know what you mean by that. Are you saying that the polls were fixed or tilted by media outlets?

Polls are weighted based on which groups are predicted to show up and at what rates. Ideology determines how this is decided. The social has not yet reconciled itself to the needs of the (post-2008) economic.

Sike
Offline
Joined: 25-10-15
Nov 9 2016 08:47

Rob Ray's picture
Rob Ray
Offline
Joined: 6-11-03
Nov 9 2016 09:27

So the thing which worries me is less Trump (who's gonna get largely hemmed in by "sensible" elements of his own party, the national bureaucracy and the markets in any case), and more what his win represents for the triumphant hard right, which seems analogous to Brexit in empowering the fantasies of the downtrodden racist and is leavened by an existing febrile atmosphere in communities which are quite heavily armed.

Fleur
Offline
Joined: 21-02-12
Nov 9 2016 11:00

What the actual fuck, America?

Entdinglichung's picture
Entdinglichung
Offline
Joined: 2-07-08
Nov 9 2016 11:01

Statement by Kandi Mossett (Mandan, Hidatsa, Arikara – North Dakota), Indigenous Environmental Network (IEN):

Quote:
Look at it this way. We know exaclty what we're dealing with & it only reinforces what this country is made up of & what it was founded on. It doesn't change, it's just clearly revealed & there is no false hope. Now, more than ever, we have to come together.
Hieronymous's picture
Hieronymous
Offline
Joined: 27-07-07
Nov 9 2016 12:04

Anti-Trump protests in California.

spacious's picture
spacious
Offline
Joined: 2-09-15
Nov 9 2016 12:12

The Jackson Rising project (jacksonrising.org) had a really interesting streaming 7 hour debate last night, a lot of good radical speakers chiming in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izMRx6zIxs8

Or peep from here if you've not got 7 hours, on the global situation of capital/labour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=8122&v=izMRx6zIxs8

Juan Conatz's picture
Juan Conatz
Offline
Joined: 29-04-08
Nov 9 2016 13:40

Not gonna lie, woke up pretty shocked this morning. The DJ on one of the local hip-hop stations was crying. Interested to dig into the data. Seeing a lot of stuff blaming "white working class racism" or the Green Party for Trump's victory. That seems too simple.

While it wasn't a blow out, electoral vote wise, this looks like it would be the worst Democratic performance since Dukakis in 1988. It looks possible that Hillary may end up winning the popular vote, though. Another bizarre part if this whole election I suppose.

NGNM85's picture
NGNM85
Offline
Joined: 22-09-16
Nov 9 2016 13:45

We're screwed. This is like a nightmare.

Hieronymous's picture
Hieronymous
Offline
Joined: 27-07-07
Nov 9 2016 15:02
NGNM85 wrote:
We're screwed. This is like a nightmare.

Same shit, different pile. Although this one stinks worse.

Sorry if the following is sloppy. Despite Trump's victory being shocking, it's not that exceptional. I'm listening to Amy Goodman's Democracy Now on the radio right now and they're saying although Trump won the electoral college it looks like Clinton is going to win the popular vote.

But this shit has been coming for a long time. Some forget that the Democrats were the party of slavery and only around the time of Prohibition did the Democrats successfully sway working class immigrants into its camp. When I was a kid I heard stories of black families who voted the Republican slate, uncritically, because they saw it as the party of Lincoln and Emancipation.

Between the 1968 and 1972 elections the white working class vote began the slide from Democrat to Republican, much of it being a referendum on civil rights, affirmative action, and school busing for desegration. If there was a pivotal turning point, it was McGovern's loss in the 1972 presidential election. It must be remembered that McGovern wrote his Ph.D. dissertation, called "The Colorado Coal Strike, 1913–1914," about the Ludlow Massacre and the class war in the mines. George Wallace in his divisive, racist presidential campaign and the rise of Ronald Reagan as governor of California (having been elected in 1966 on the campaign promise to "clean up the mess at Berkeley") were key elements in the process of this erasure of labor -- and class issues -- from either party. Making true the quote by Gore Vidal: in the U.S. there is one party with two right wings (my addendum: one is pro-business the other is anti-labor).

Just read Jefferson Cowie's brilliant Stayin' Alive: The 1970s and the Last Days of the Working Class to see this process spelled out in lucid detail. Here's what he said about Nixon's strategy for the white working class:

Cowie's Stayin' Alive wrote:
Meantime, Richard Nixon, taking his cue from Wallace, was designing his own heretical strategy to woo white working-class voters away from the party of Roosevelt. His plans to build a post-New Deal coalition--the "New Majority" he liked to call it--around the Republican Party in 1972 was based an making explicit pitch for white, male, working-class votes by appealing to their cultural values over their material needs (pp. 6-7)

Reagan's "Moral Majority" further developed this cultural war, supported by suburban tax-payer revolts against inner city social programs (real or imagined) that began with California's Prop. 13 and spread nationwide. Jim Sensenbrenner, House Rep from Milwaukee took up the mantle with his anti-immigrant H.R. 4437, in tandem with Wisconsin governor Scott Walker's attack on organized -- mostly public sector -- workers. And with Trump that continues onward.

But there is hope (and these ramblings are not fully developed). Latina/o workers rose up against H.R. 4437 on May Day 2006 with millions refusing work for the day in a nationwide general strike. Congress backed down on the anti-immigrant law. During austerity against education in California in 2010, many of the same Latina/o communities rose up in the same places, sometimes even the same families who marched in 2006. The Spanish-speaking working class is the main target in Trump's sights and they have a track record of resisting, even in class terms, and as the population of California is now over 50% Latina/o and is the bedrock of the working class throughout the U.S., hopefully they'll rise up again and we can unite with them in defending immigrant communities who most likely will come under direct attack -- once again.

Trump has already expressed his hostility towards Black Lives Matter, so hopefully it can rebound and unite with other oppressed groups who'll come under Trump's ramped up police state attack and continue fighting back.

Just some thoughts.

Hieronymous's picture
Hieronymous
Offline
Joined: 27-07-07
Nov 9 2016 14:56

dp

petey
Offline
Joined: 13-10-05
Nov 9 2016 14:55

imo good points in rob ray's post

Rob Ray wrote:
So the thing which worries me is less Trump (who's gonna get largely hemmed in by "sensible" elements of his own party, the national bureaucracy and the markets in any case)

exactly right, and this was completely ignored during the campaign. he contradicted himself on almost every policy issue, so who can know what he'll try, and my guess is that he won't try half the things he said he would: no wall, which would cost billions, and no deportations, which would have to be locally administered and would fail because either the local jurisdictions (like mine in nyc) or the local capitalists who exploit the cheap labor won't co-operate very easily. it's good if these things don't happen, but it's bad that he could win an election saying that they will. he's also never had to face a bureaucracy like the US federal gov't and i'm looking forward to twitter meltdowns when he doesn't get his way.

Quote:
the fantasies of the downtrodden racist

many of trump's supporters are racists, but i don't believe that's their motivation. imo a more prominent one (i've said this before) is gender reaction. the likes of a melania trump is more agreeable to trump supporters, both male and female, than the likes of a hillary clinton or a michelle obama. the trump marriage and his sexual juvenility too. mostly i think trump voters voted for the reasons they said: relatively speaking he's outside the power structure that answers only to itself and has immiserated them. that it's capitalism to blame is an almost impossible sell in the US.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/opinion/sunday/we-need-somebody-spectacular-views-from-trump-country.html

Quote:
Hazard is in Perry County, where unemployment is above 10 percent. On a bench opposite the county courthouse, on the Starbucks-free Main Street, I found Steve Smith and Paul Bush. Smith used to work underground at the Starfire mine. He earned as much as $1,500 a week, but was laid off a while ago. His unemployment has dried up and he has four children to feed. His family scrapes by on his wife’s income as a nurse. He’d been in court over a traffic offense; now an idle afternoon stretched away.

“Trump’s going to get us killed, probably!” he told me. “But I’ll vote for him anyway over Hillary. If you vote for Hillary you vote for Obama, and he’s made it impossible to ship coal. This place is about dried up. A job at Wendy’s is the only thing left. We may have to move.”

Quote:
communities which are quite heavily armed.

could go two ways: either they now feel empowered to engage in daily and open abuse, knowing that trump will do nothing about their guns, or, since they got what they wanted out of the election, the wind is out of their sails and they kind of shut up a bit.

Hieronymous's picture
Hieronymous
Offline
Joined: 27-07-07
Nov 9 2016 16:53
Juan Conatz wrote:
Virtually all the polls were wrong.

True.

NPR radio just had a story about how the only poll to call a victory for Trump, going back a couple weeks, was USC-Los Angeles Times. They used more statistically sound questions to truly test probability, rather than the dated -- and leading -- methods used by traditional pollsters.

Khawaga's picture
Khawaga
Offline
Joined: 7-08-06
Nov 9 2016 16:04

Great post Hieronymous.

Juan Conatz's picture
Juan Conatz
Offline
Joined: 29-04-08
Nov 9 2016 17:10

Yeah, I know people are mentioning the LA Times poll now but they were also wrong. They had Trump winning the popular vote by 5-6 percentage pretty consistently, however it looks like Clinton will end up winning by 0.2%.

Chilli Sauce's picture
Chilli Sauce
Offline
Joined: 5-10-07
Nov 9 2016 17:15
Quote:
Knowing that the electorate is roughly 50% white, it's tempting to think that there are a lot more racists out there than anyone thought

So, I've been out of American for the better part of a decade and I just happened to come back for basically all of this election cycle. And this is one thing that struck me: there is a lot of fucking racism in American. I think a lot of it comes from the Black Lives Matter movement bringing otherwise underlying racism to the surface, but the anti-Obama backlash does seem to have fully blossomed in Trump - who's also made overt racism far more acceptable in a mainstream setting.

All that said, I'm viewing this very much the way I viewed Obama's election: no matter who's in the presidency, the looming threat of war, worsening living conditions, climate change, racism are always there and we need to be organizing against them. The same applies to Trump.

I do fear that Trump's election will empower far-right street violence, but I think his defeat would have done the same. The need for defensive organization that's always been there will continue to be there.

jef costello's picture
jef costello
Offline
Joined: 9-02-06
Nov 9 2016 17:47

I was wiondering, to what extent is this demographic? As large chunks of America are stable or declining in terms of population and the cities will tend to attract younger, democratic voters, does this simply mean that the possibility of winning in the western, southern and midwestern states drains away and only serves to increase majorities in the blue states?
Clinton did just scrape the popular vote but lost fairly heavily in the electoral college (which is hardly unusual in a first past the post system .)

Craftwork's picture
Craftwork
Offline
Joined: 26-12-15
Nov 9 2016 18:18

Today's events have demonstrated the hollow commitment of many self-identifying 'revolutionaries' – I see so-called communists/anarchists on Facebook, being upset about Trump's victory; they are admitting, by implication, that deep down, they would have preferred a Clinton victory.

Shame!

Khawaga's picture
Khawaga
Offline
Joined: 7-08-06
Nov 9 2016 18:33
Quote:
Today's events have demonstrated the hollow commitment of many self-identifying 'revolutionaries' – I see so-called communists/anarchists on Facebook, being upset about Trump's victory; they are admitting, by implication, that deep down, they would have preferred a Clinton victory.

It's hard to shake off ideology, that's for sure. Don't understand why you would get downvotes for making that statement...

Hieronymous's picture
Hieronymous
Offline
Joined: 27-07-07
Nov 9 2016 18:42

More anti-Trump demos:

    including 1,500 at Berkeley High School (which is half the students) walking out this morning before classes at 9:00 a.m.
Craftwork's picture
Craftwork
Offline
Joined: 26-12-15
Nov 9 2016 19:01

Too many people are overestimating the importance of the role of 'President'. The American state is an enormous machine, with multiple, conflicting strata (e.g. urban vs. rural; state vs. federal; middle America vs. coastal America). This is a society with a vast array of corporate interests (which includes Trump's own interests). Now that he's obtained political power, he doesn't have much of an incentive to significantly disrupt the status quo. Sure, immigration controls might be tightened, or there might be a cultural conservative backlash, but this isn't unprecendented in the long history of American politics.

I can understand that people are bombarded with sensationalised information by the media, but both sides (both his allies and his enemies) have an interest in portraying Trump as more significant than he actually is in the grand scheme of things.

And finally, is Trump more of a reactionary than, say, Truman?
Will a Trump presidency be more conservative than that of Reagan?
Personally, I don't think so.

mikail firtinaci's picture
mikail firtinaci
Offline
Joined: 16-12-06
Nov 9 2016 19:01

There is no reason to over dramatize the situation. Voting patterns did not radically change. But of course, the democratic party lost the (former) industrial rust belt states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio (and almost Michigan). And that is only natural. Working class communities and people in those places are ruined and living through hell for decades now. Think about the Flint! There are counties in PA which for almost decades consistently voted democrat and turned republican in this election, clearly as a protest.

If the results of this elections mean something it definitely means that identity politics is buried in the lands that it took its stupidest form. The democratic strategy based on holding onto an electoral majority constituted by minorities + white collar women + LGBTi against an amorphous southern + white blue collar boogeyman has just collapsed. Cross class alliances does not attract enough votes because obviously they don't change the lives of oppressed minority workers or working class women. Change any laws you want, but if you are single parent mother struggling in the Appalachian countryside than there is nothing common between you and an Ivy League women studies professor.

The post-WWII political/ideological scheme in the West based on a moderate conservative right and a slimy social democratic / liberal left sharing power also collapsed. This duality was not working on the edges (in Greece, Turkey, etc) and now it failed in the center as well.

If the fascists and rightists are getting bolder and bolder, it is time for the communists to do the same and even more so. This timid left and its rotten "capitalist realism" has got to die.

syndicalistcat's picture
syndicalistcat
Offline
Joined: 2-11-06
Nov 9 2016 22:46

Many of the people who voted for Trump voted for Obama in 2008 or 2012. Clinton got 6 million fewer votes than Obama. This is one of a number of reasons to not suppose that racism explains the outcome. Many of Trump's supporters are racist to one or degree or another but I agree that wasn't the main thing that was driving a lot of people to vote for Trump who in the past had voted for Democrats.

Even though Trump also got 1 million fewer votes than Romney -- lost Repubs to the other side or non-voting -- he still won because of the collapse in support for the Democratic Party candidate.

Clinton won almost 200,000 more votes than Trump but Trump won a majority of the Electoral College. This is maybe the third or fourth time this has happened, most recently in 2000. This is easier to happen for Repubs because their base is in a lot of small rural states & the Electoral College gives them disproportionately more weight.

Greens had no effect on outcome. Stein got 1.2 million votes, about 1 percent.

The Democratic Party elite have pushed policies that ignore working class interests for decades now and many professional-managerial class liberal pundits look with disdain on the working class, especially white working class. So the party establishment decided way in advance it was Clinton's turn & they would just move everybody up in their careers in the machine...no matter what the angry mood of the old & new middle classes & working class may be. For the latter this was a way to give the finger to the elites in charge.

This election is definitely proof of the completely out of touch character of the Democratic Party political machine.

Trump is likely to move to a major focus on deportations...as he has promised. But Obama had already been engaged in major deportation effort, so this is more a matter of how much than of a basic change. He has promised to appoint a reactionary Supreme court justice of the sort of Scalia & that's something he'll do, but that is just back to where it was.

People have been sort of exaggerating the event as if Hitler had won election. White nationalists & fascists will be encouraged by this, but it's not clear exactly what will change in terms of how the state operates. Under Obama there were already plenty of police state aspects.

It's very likely that TTP and TTIP are now dead. Maybe the only positive result. Trump may try to renegotiate NAFTA with Mexico but who knows what if anything that will change.

S. Artesian
Offline
Joined: 5-02-09
Nov 9 2016 23:26
Craftwork wrote:
Today's events have demonstrated the hollow commitment of many self-identifying 'revolutionaries' – I see so-called communists/anarchists on Facebook, being upset about Trump's victory; they are admitting, by implication, that deep down, they would have preferred a Clinton victory.

Shame!

Of course people are upset at Trump's victory, more than they would be at Hillary's victory. Not because "Hillary is better" or Hillary is the lesser evil, but because of the forces behind Trump's victory-- that peculiar combination of racists, hedge fund managers, KKKers, old line wack-job John Birch society members, Murdoch flunkies, oil money, has parlayed a "program" of violence and assault on the most vulnerable into policy.

Doesn't mean you support Hillary, but you certainly have to be aware of the differences between Clinton and Trump. You don't have to like Obama, in fact you can oppose Obama, but you also better be able to recognize, and distinguish your opposition, from the racist opposition that was just so incensed that an African-American had the temerity to run for and win the presidency.

It's not fundamentally different than Syriza vs. Golden Dawn in Greece. No support to Syriza, but certainly defense of labor, leftists, immigrants from Golden Dawn attacks. And I oppose and have opposed from the getgo any support to Syriza, but I would be upset if Golden Dawn replaced it as the government, because of what that would mean to the prospects for revolution, and the retreat of labor from the struggle.

As for support for Obama, flipping to support for Trump-- that's not an indication that racism isn't or wasn't at work in those rural and smaller cities. The Republicans coded their appeals to racism, hiding it in the verbiage of "merit" "free markets" blahblah-- not the kind of language an appeal to stir (white) men's souls. Trump dropped the code, identifying the "other"-- the "enemy."

Chilli Sauce's picture
Chilli Sauce
Offline
Joined: 5-10-07
Nov 9 2016 23:55
Craftwork wrote:
Today's events have demonstrated the hollow commitment of many self-identifying 'revolutionaries' – I see so-called communists/anarchists on Facebook, being upset about Trump's victory; they are admitting, by implication, that deep down, they would have preferred a Clinton victory.

Shame!

It's funny you should say that, I was thinking how the election of Trump made a lot of anarchists rediscover their critique of electoralism. I mean, the same people who were on social media supporting Sanders a few months back are, today, on social media highlighting the bankruptcy and uselessness of electoral politics.

Anyway, as others have said, it's the deeper implications of a Trump victory that are frightening. Paul Mason, FWIW, has highlighted the misogyny that goes a long way to explaining Trump's victory. Just speaking to my immediate family members, I think he's right to do so.