New AI slop gives 10% chance of total councilism in next century

9/1 is a lot shorter than I’d have it. Have to give the devil its due, this is decently prescriptive.

- - -

A worldwide libertarian communist revolution—combining the anti-authoritarian ethos of libertarianism with the classless, stateless vision of communism—faces steep challenges but could theoretically succeed through a mix of strategy, timing, and historical luck. Let’s break it down into what it would take, step by step, while keeping it grounded in practical and speculative reasoning.

Core Concept
Libertarian communism seeks a society without hierarchies, private property, or centralized authority, where resources are managed collectively and individual freedom is maximized. Think anarcho-communism (e.g., Kropotkin or the Spanish CNT-FAI in 1936) but scaled globally. Success hinges on dismantling capitalism and the state while avoiding new tyrannies—like the Soviet or Maoist outcomes—through decentralized, voluntary cooperation.

Global Discontent with Capitalism
A revolution needs a spark. Widespread anger at inequality, climate collapse, or corporate overreach could prime the pump. Imagine a 2030s scenario: automation guts jobs, wealth concentrates further (top 1% owns 60%+), and ecological crises displace billions. People reject both neoliberalism and populist strongmen, creating an appetite for radical alternatives.

Decentralized Coordination
Unlike top-down Marxist revolutions, this one can’t rely on a vanguard. Modern tech—encrypted platforms, blockchain for resource tracking, or AI-driven logistics—could enable leaderless networks to organize. Picture X-like platforms evolving into global assemblies where workers, farmers, and techies self-coordinate strikes, mutual aid, and production handoffs without a Politburo.

Mass Defection from Power Structures
For the state and capital to crumble, key players must walk away. Military and police defections (e.g., soldiers refusing orders, as in Russia 1917) plus corporate insiders leaking resources or sabotaging from within could kneecap enforcement. A tipping point might come if, say, 30% of a nation’s workforce and security apparatus join the cause, paralyzing opposition.

Economic Self-Sufficiency
Post-revolution, communities must feed and power themselves without global trade or bosses. Localized production—3D printing, renewable microgrids, urban farming—could sustain a transition. Historical precedent: during the Spanish Civil War, anarchist collectives ran factories and farms, producing efficiently until Franco’s forces crushed them.

Cultural Shift
People need to want this. Propaganda (memes, art, manifestos) must sell mutual aid over individualism while dodging accusations of utopianism. Education systems, already crumbling in some places, could be co-opted to teach cooperation and anti-authority values, seeding a generational pivot.

How It Plays Out
Phase 1: Collapse and Opportunity
A global crisis (economic crash, war, or climate event) weakens states and markets. Protests escalate into general strikes. In, say, 2032, a “Global Spring” sees workers seize factories from Shanghai to Detroit, ports shut down, and digital currencies crash as hackers redistribute wealth.
Phase 2: Power Vacuum
Governments fall or retreat. Militias form but lack unity to suppress decentralized uprisings. Communes emerge—some rural, some urban—linked by tech and trade barter. X posts might read: “Berlin collective shares solar tech; who’s got grain?”
Phase 3: Scaling Up
Success spreads via contagion. If one region (e.g., Catalonia 2.0) thrives—low crime, high output—others copy it. The revolution dodges civil war by focusing on sabotage (e.g., cutting elite supply chains) over pitched battles, wearing down holdouts.
Phase 4: Stabilization
After a decade, most of the world runs on federated councils. Property’s gone; work’s voluntary but socially expected. Conflicts linger—some hoard, some slack—but peer pressure and resource abundance (thanks to tech) keep it viable.

Why It Might Work
Tech Leverage: Tools like AI and decentralized networks solve old logistical nightmares (e.g., the Soviet planning mess).
Historical Precedent: Short-lived wins (Paris Commune 1871, Rojava today) show small-scale feasibility.
Human Nature: Cooperation thrives under pressure—studies like Elinor Ostrom’s commons research suggest people can self-manage without coercion.

Why It Might Fail
Power Vacuums: Warlords or new states could fill the gap, as in post-1917 Russia.
Scale: Coordinating 8 billion people without hierarchy is a logistical monster—local successes might not globalize.
Resistance: Capitalists and nationalists won’t go quietly; expect drones, mercenaries, and propaganda wars.

Odds and X-Factor
Realistically, a full global win might sit at 5-10% odds in the next century, barring a perfect storm of crises and tech breakthroughs. The X-factor? A wildcard like Musk-level innovation (ironic, given his capitalism) repurposed for communal ends—say, Starlink democratizing communication or Tesla tech powering free energy grids.
Could it happen? Yes, if the stars align and humanity bets on trust over control.