Collapse

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Scallywag
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Aug 26 2020 13:34
Collapse

Could human civilization collapse or eventually become extinct because of climate change, and if so on what time scale are we taking about?

It seems like a lot of scientists are saying that societal collapse is now the most likely outcome, due to impacts upon crops and water availability, plus mass migration.

What impact does the pandemic have on all of this?

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R Totale
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Aug 26 2020 13:55

I don't know for sure, I did see this very bleak article doing the rounds a month or so back though: https://eand.co/if-life-feels-bleak-its-because-our-civilization-is-begi...

I've not actually read Desert myself, so I dunno if it's any use, and the people who are most into it tend to be a bit annoying imo, but it might be one starting point for grappling with this stuff: http://organisemagazine.org.uk/2019/10/03/desert-review/ https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/anonymous-desert

Scallywag
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Aug 27 2020 10:54

Thanks for sharing R Totale.

I will need to have a closer look at the desert stuff I haven't seen this before, the stuff Umair Haque is posting though I am not too sure what to make of.

He said the 2030's will be when climate change hits hard, the 2040's when ecosystems begin to collapse and the 2050's when animals are gone. He did not back any of these projections up with science though and it seems far too quick to me.

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R Totale
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Aug 27 2020 13:26

Oh, come to think of it, Out of the Woods stuff is probably also relevant here, they're meant to have a book coming out called Hope Against Hope, and they contributed a few articles to a special "apocalypse issue" of the Occupied Times, which might be another good starting point. And like I say, I've not actually read Desert myself, so my recommendation of it is only a very cautious and provisional one - I was slightly surprised that the AF seemed to give it such a positive review.

Scallywag
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Sep 22 2020 17:37

Richard Wolff did a recent interview with Mexie a libertarian leftist youtuber and podcaster who discusses political ecology issues.

The interview raises the question of capitalisms collapse so thought I'd share here to see what you think.

https://youtu.be/vipaqx_fo2g

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R Totale
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Sep 22 2020 19:00

Thinking about it, Inhabit is another attempt to tackle the questions around collapse:
https://inhabit.global/
"Path A:

It's over.
Bow your head and phone scroll through the apocalypse

Watch as Silicon Valley replaces everything with robots. New fundamentalist deathcults make ISIS look like child’s play. The authorities release a geolocation app to real-time snitch on immigrants and political dissent while metafascists crowdfund the next concentration camps. Government services fail. Politicians turn to more draconian measures and the left continues to bark without teeth.

Meanwhile, glaciers melt, wildfires rage, Hurricane Whatever drowns another city. Ancient plagues reemerge from thawing permafrost. Endless work as the rich benefit from ruin. Finally, knowing we did nothing, we perish, sharing our tomb with all life on the planet.

Path B

Take a breath and get ready for a new world

A multiplicity of people, spaces, and infrastructures lay the ground where powerful, autonomous territories take shape. Everything for everyone. Land is given over to common use. Technology is cracked open—everything a tool, anything a weapon. Autonomous supply lines break the economic stranglehold. Mesh networks provide real-time communication connecting those who sense that a different life must be built."

adri
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Dec 4 2020 21:32

.

Scallywag
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Sep 23 2020 22:22

I don't know much about Wolff but as he is a marxist not an anarchist and seems to me to be a traditional one I had the feeling that libcomers would likely have some issues with him.

Most left thinkers seem to be marxist academics. A lot of the stuff they write about I find really interesting especially when talking about how capitalism works, the impact it has on people, how it is not sustainable and its relation with ecology. Their solutions though usually involve needing government in some way whether its to bring in universal basic income, nationalisation, a green new deal or force action on climate change in the same way governments forced the economy to slow in response to covid.

adri
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Sep 23 2020 23:47
Scallywag wrote:
I don't know much about Wolff but as he is a marxist not an anarchist and seems to me to be a traditional one I had the feeling that libcomers would likely have some issues with him.

Most left thinkers seem to be marxist academics. A lot of the stuff they write about I find really interesting especially when talking about how capitalism works, the impact it has on people, how it is not sustainable and its relation with ecology. Solutions though usually involve needing government in some way whether its to bring in universal basic income, nationalisation, a green new deal or force action on climate change in the same way governments forced the economy to slow in response to covid.

Just to say I'd also echo Out of the Woods as a good source on climate change issues. Actual scientific research is a good source too, but you have to be sort of careful because science isn't really neutral or immune to bourgeois influence, such as Malthus' ideas on population. I always thought it strange how a geology textbook might explain climate change, and then transition into talking about something like the classification of deposits based on profitability, as if "profitability" were something natural to earth's resources (and as if production for profit weren't a factor in climate change). I think Out of the Woods do a good job with blending scientific info and filtering out all the bourgeois stuff. This is a particularly good piece on hunger,

https://libcom.org/blog/political-economy-hunger-17112014

I don't see what Wolff's co-ops have in common with anything Marx wrote about so I'm kind of reluctant to even call him a marxist.

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Dec 4 2020 14:40

A fairly interesting article sketching out four possible future trajectories: "Climate Leviathan" (a renewed UN-style global capitalist co-operation to maintain some kind of order), "Climate Behemoth" (Trump/Bolsonaro-style nationalism and denialism), "Climate Mao" (some kind of state socialist challenge to the above" and "Climate X" (various anti-capitalist autonomous-type visions).

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Lucky Black Cat
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Jul 10 2021 22:06

In terms of understanding the progression of impact people in different parts of the world are likely to experience at different levels of climate change, I found the book Six Degrees very informative, or if you want a short version there's also the article based on this book.

Unfortunately this source is quite old (2008), so I'm sure there are many details that need changing. But I've yet to find another source that gives a very clear and detailed look of the impact at each stage along the way to a possible six degrees of warming. So, what would be the impact at 1 degree of warming, 2 degrees, 3 degrees, 4 degrees, 5 degrees, and 6 degrees. I think that broadly speaking the predictions remain more or less relevant.