The following article shows how Turkey is at the center of local wars, balancing forces between Moscow and NATO. It can contribute to an understanding of how “The imperialism of Turkish capital presents a strategy and leadership that (…) presses, stops the pressure, reorients it, does it politically, economically and militarily. Their strength is not stopped by limited public struggles in one or several areas in which they intervene. There are sufficient foundations that we will understand if we grasp the essence of the history of long-term confrontations, aspirations, open struggles, coalitions and opportunistic shifting alliances (Israel, brotherhoods Muslims, Russia, Germany, EU, USA, Qatar …), resentments, and nationalist aspirations of the past and present, arms capabilities, business, determining factors and geostrategic movements.” (Anibal, Obfuscated distortion, distorted obfuscation. The Example of Emancipation; Communia)
The victory of Azerbaijani-Turkish forces in the second Karabakh war will lead to a serious strengthening of Turkey
The two leaders of the powers understand each other very well, for they rule with similar methods. They conclude mutually beneficial economic deals and agree on the division of zones of influence in several countries. Both oppose the attempts of the Western bloc to control the planet – here their interests are similar. Finally, both countries take revenge for the humiliation of the past, while rising from their knees – expanding their military and political influence, or, as they once said, living space. But here’s the trouble – their areas of interest overlap.
The victory of Azerbaijani-Turkish forces in the second Karabakh war will lead to the serious strengthening of Turkey in the South Caucasus. It stands behind Azerbaijan and it wins, while Russia stands behind Armenia and Armenia loses. But what does it mean? It means that Georgia will drift after Azerbaijan towards Turkey.
It is already happening. Both because there are Abkhazia and South Ossetia occupied by the Russian army and pro-Russian separatists, and because Turkey comes to Georgia with its investments and builds enterprises there. Turkey and Azerbaijan have become Georgia’s biggest trading partners, along with Russia.
Georgia is blocking military supplies to Armenia, which is Russia’s ally, but Georgia will become increasingly close to Turkey, taking it as an instrument against Russia and the Russian-controlled separatists. That will happen more quickly than today, as Turkey’s role has changed and it has a chance to dominate the South Caucasus. And if the anti-Russian parties win the elections in Georgia, the process will be even more intense.
In fact, every accurate shot the Azerbaijani-Turkish forces fired at the Armenian army is a shot at the Russian state. The Kremlin seems to have decided that it is so important for them to punish Armenia for the velvet revolution and the appointment of pro-American officials in the government that so far they have ignored the geopolitical factor.
It is true that Turkish analysts are now saying that Russia will soon interfere in the conflict, that it still cannot stand aside for a long time and allow Armenia to be torn apart – precisely for the above reasons. But even if it does, it will change little in the equation.
If Russia does not intervene, it will show that Turkey is more powerful in the South Caucasus because Russia’s ally can be beaten with impunity. If it intervenes and tries to stop Azerbaijan’s advance, it may lead to a sharp complication of relations with it and the country’s full transition to the Turkish hand. Moreover, if by then the Azerbaijani-Turkish forces have taken only a small part of Armenia’s occupied districts, it will still look like a success, albeit partial, as an argument for Georgia’s pro-Turkish orientation.
Moscow clearly does not want to get involved in the Karabakh story. It does not like Pashinyan; it does not want to enter into another conflict with Turkey because of him. Besides, Nagorno-Karabakh and the 7 districts occupied by Armenia are the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, and although the events in Ukraine and the Middle East show time after time that international law means little to the powers today, it is not in Russia’s interest to increase the risks and put itself under new sanctions.
Moscow may answer Ankara asymmetrically – in Syria and Libya. In recent days, there have been signs of activity by Assad and his army in the Idlib area, and Haftar and his fighters from the LNA (Libyan National Army) in Libya. There, actions against Turkish and pro-Turkish forces are becoming more likely. However, Turkish Bairaktarians will meet them near Tripoli and near Idlib, and the armies, formed with Russian support, have so far been unable to do anything about it, as the 2020 military campaigns in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh have shown.
The confrontation between Russia and Turkey is taking place today on three fronts. And most importantly, there are more and more centers of confrontation. Since 2015, the front was Syria alone, in 2020 Libya was added, and now the South Caucasus. What will happen tomorrow? Georgia?
Michael Meer, 9-10-2020
Translated from Russian Победа азербайджано-турецких сил во второй карабахской войне приведет к серьезному усилению Турции with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)