2024: Year of transition to the unknown

The year 2024 will be remembered as a transitional year in Bulgaria. Despite the absence of serious social and political upheavals, the year marked the end of one period and the beginning of a new one, whose contours are only beginning to be drawn, but whose content is still too indeterminate. Economically, the Bulgarian economy has moved from an inflationary stage to relative stability. Politically, the cycle of protests that led to transitional governments and parliaments without a majority has ended, without the political player who will impose the new status quo having yet come on the scene. Even the so-called "green transition" is in a state of flux - the mines have not yet closed, but cuts are underway.

## What does this mean for workers?

The end of the inflationary period means price stability and predictability, but also time to pay the bill for the state spending of recent years. That is why the new budget is expected to offer new social cuts, wage freezes and tax increases. The price for the bloated budget in an inflationary period will be paid by the same people who, through their barely catching up wages, paid for inflation - the workers. At the same time, the high prices of recent years have forced many households to take out emergency loans or to suspend repayment of old debts. The effects of this private debt crisis are yet to unfold in the coming year.

Both inflation and recovery from it are determined by processes external to Bulgaria, so it matters little who exactly is at the helm of the state. The lack of an economic alternative is one of the main reasons for the electorate's withdrawal and record low voter turnout. The political parties have nothing to offer, and when they do try, even the most gullible now view them with suspicion. So it is no surprise that the only new political projects rely entirely on cultural confrontation, geopolitical division or esoteric nationalism. All three are completely emptied of economic sense for ordinary people and therefore invariably have a short life, failing to hold the attention of the electorate for long.

## Political situation

It seems that none of the old players is benefiting from the current situation - the BSP is still on the way out, with no light in the tunnel even after the party got rid of Ninova and replaced her with a faceless triumvirate of old party functionaries, headed by the Varna ‘jellyfish’ Gutsanov. The PP-DB continue to lose support with the same banal inevitability with which they wonder how to form a coalition with the political scarecrows they have been using for years to mobilise their electorate. The only thing that temporarily secured them second place was the collapse of the MRF, which was in fact the political event of the year, the consequences of which continue to diversify an otherwise rather dull political life.

It is difficult to point out winners from the situation, but let us say that there are non-losers. For example, ‘Revival’, which retained its support in elections (but did not increase it) and which managed to establish itself as a legitimate party in this interim political period. The other non-loser (but not yet a winner) is the president, who to some extent has managed to maintain his high ratings amid the general collapse, but mostly because he is perceived as the only possible political centre around which a new majority capable of governing the country somewhat independently can be formed.

## Geopolitical situation

Geopolitically, in the transitional period we are in, we are seeing an interesting shift of layers. Bulgarian society in the last 150 years of our recent history has always been divided, with a shifting balance, along the East/West axis. For the first time since the 1990s, we are witnessing a noticeable tipping of the scales of public opinion in an anti-Euro-Atlantic direction. Paradoxically, this is happening at a time when Russia is waging a war of aggression against a neighbouring country.

Most supporters of anti-Western political discourse explain this process by the rejection of ‘Western values’ and liberalism, and this is the main propaganda tool of those positioning themselves on this spectrum, mostly nationalist formations. While there is undoubtedly a great deal of truth in this explanation, there is another, far more powerful factor that tips the scales convincingly, and that is the attitude to war. Regardless of their geopolitical convictions, the majority of people in the country reject the war. In this context, the political forces insisting on non-interference in the war and normal relations with Russia seem to be on the side of peace.

This applies with full force to the moderate positions on the war of the president and the BSP, but also to openly pro-Russian parties such as ‘Revival’. Although considered an extreme nationalist party, as it undoubtedly is in its domestic politics, even Kostadinov's party seems moderate in foreign policy compared to the pro-Western hawks. Undoubtedly, the enthusiastic support of the Euro-Atlanticists for escalation and the increasing involvement of Bulgaria and NATO in the war does not help them in the struggle for public support. Add to this the fact that the main faces of Euro-Atlanticism in big politics are reduced to people like Borisov and Peevski, and the change in public attitudes towards NATO and the West no longer seems quite so paradoxical.
This new reality, other things being equal, will inevitably lead to a change in the political status quo in the country, and it is very likely that in the coming years political forces advocating moderately pro-Russian positions will take the helm of the state. Of course, it hardly needs explaining that those who appear to be supporters of 'peace' are not at all driven by a coherent anti-militarist political line, but by a desire for opportunistic manoeuvring between East and West, serving certain somewhat political but primarily economic interests.

## Domestic political changes

In addition to foreign policy, we are also witnessing domestic political change. The growing influence of conservative policies in the West has led to an intensification of the culture wars in our country. The most striking example of this has been the series of attacks on cinemas and theatres by the far right. While these attacks are not something essentially new for Bulgaria, their instigators and perpetrators are no longer limited to political fringes such as Boyan Rasate's neo-Nazis, but have managed to mobilize support among a number of parliamentary parties such as the BSP and ‘Revival’, as well as growing public support.

At the same time, we have seen the limitations faced by the far right, as was evident during the ‘Revival’ attack on teachers and the sharp public backlash. While nationalists find public support, or at least tolerance, when they attack minorities such as refugees or gays, they still do not have the necessary strength and support to attack workers, especially when in numerous and traditionally strong sectors such as education.

## Class balance

Naturally, any balance of power is temporary. Workers must not only defend themselves, but attack as well. But in order to have the strength to stand up to the dominant liberal or nationalist political forces, they must first of all have the strength to stand up to their own bosses in their own workplaces.

In this respect, the past year has been rather depressing. We have witnessed the inability of miners and unions in the sector to adequately push back against the (un)fair green transition. In the health sector, we have seen the results of the crushing of the big strike in Dobrich the previous year, which led to mass disillusionment and apathy this year. Only in the public administration were some local struggles held with limited success.

The looming debt crisis, worsening political instability and increasing cultural and geopolitical confrontation portend a potentially explosive social situation in the coming year. But whether it will be another transitional one depends above all on the economic situation. As long as the world economy is relatively stable, all these factors will have a limited impact in Bulgaria, but an economic crisis will immediately remove the fuse of the social bomb and bring all contradictions to the surface, making the coming months and years crucial for the country's future.