War resistance in Ukraine amidst the hype about peace talks

Special thanks to our French comrades from the Solidarity Initiative Olga Taratuta in preparing this material

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It is already officially recognized that after the law on partial decriminalization of unauthorized leaving a military unit (SZCh in Ukrainian) and desertion came into force, desertions from the army of Ukraine have increased significantly. “I spoke with our elite units, both with the Airborne Assault Forces and with the Marines: the number of SZCh increased by 60%,” said Roman Kostenko, secretary of the parliamentary defense committee, at the end of January. Seeing that the ground is slipping from under its feet, the Ukrainian state is trying to take punitive measures.

We recently wrote about the post of war correspondent Yury Butusov on December 31 which received a wide resonance in Ukraine. In the post, Butusov described how 1,700 people fled from the 155th Mechanized Brigade "Anna of Kyiv" before the first shot was fired. By the time it was sent to France, there were already 935 fugitives. In France itself, more than 50 fled. Less well known is that on January 8, the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) detained a senior lieutenant from this brigade, who himself went into SZCh and incited his fighters to do the same. He was taken from the Rivne region to Kiev and sent to custody without bail. Then, the former brigade commander, Colonel Dmytro Ryumshin, was detained with the possibility of bail for 90 million hryvnya ($2,161 million, a very large sum of money in Ukraine). According to the SBI, there may have been a scheme operating in the brigade in which those wishing to leave the country were registered for money. “If I’m not mistaken, about 12 draft dodgers were included in the lists for training in France,” said bureau spokesperson Tatyana Sapyan on the air of the telethon.

The magazine Forbes reported on January 27 that the second brigade of the Ukraine’s Armed Forces was in the process of disintegrating within a month during deployment at the Donetsk front. We are talking about the 157th Mechanized Brigade, which consisted of new recruits and was sent to defend Pokrovsk. There are a total of 8 such brigades of the 150th series,“that formed in 2023 or early 2024 and, after a lengthy period of training, began arriving on the front starting late last year. The brigades are big, some with roughly double the usual 2,000 manpower billets of a Ukrainian ground combat brigade. But they’re also fragile—with inexperienced leaders, too few modern armored vehicles and poor morale that often results in a high desertion rate. (…)There were reports of brigade troopers taking one look at their trenches—and promptly abandoning their positions,” the publication noted. According to it, the brigade had not received the necessary combat training and “began falling apart before they even arrived in Pokrovsk.” It was the second such case in a month.

On December 25, in the public Telegram group UFM which provides assistance in leaving Ukraine, a member wrote:

“My wife’s brother escaped from training without a weapon (I won’t say the exact date), three days later the cops were already looking for him at his registered address, and he was on the cops' criminal wanted list..… So everything is going fast now. It was a week ago. He went to the place of registration to surrender himself, there were familiar cops (he wanted to negotiate), but something went wrong, and as far as I understand, he was again shoved in the training center, but in where he lived. Before that he was caught by TCR [Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support] in Kirovograd region. Now he's in Kharkov, [there is] no contact with him. All this he personally told, as well as the fact that in the training schools of Vinnitsa region they kick people with a buttstock if you f*** off, he lost a few teeth..…”

Despite this intensification of the efforts to persecute deserters, the possibilities of the repressive system are still very limited. A man from Kharkov named Andrey reported on January 12: “As for the search. There is one character who disappeared into the sunset in June. Recently cops checked him for the 4th time when he was coming from work —he was not wanted. So it's a lucky break. He works as a packer in the workshop. Unofficially, of course. He's been on a relatively quiet sector, northbound, so it didn't come to the meat grinder. It's more likely the liver that needs to be repaired, not the head.” Another resident of Kharkov, who went into SZCh last summer together with his commander and the entire company from the southern front, was mentioned by us last month — he now lives at home and goes to the store, and no one is looking for him. On the morning of January 13, the disappearance of the first company commander with the rank of captain was discovered in the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the 143rd Mechanized Brigade near Kupyansk. The mobilized officer left his weapon, took his personal belongings and personal car.

There is also new evidence of mass desertions from training camps in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where those mobilized in Kharkov are usually sent. We wrote a little earlier about massive desertions in this area. One woman in Kharkov shared the following information anonymously on January 30: “I talked to a local policeman, he says every day there are about 100 people near Novomoskovsk who go into SZCh. The efficiency of efforts to catch them is so-so. In my opinion, network marketing has better recruitment rates. How many a day they catch out of these 100 he will not, of course, say. He complained that there is a lot of paperwork”.

On the same day, January 30, the above mentioned journalist Yury Butusov posted information, according to which in some radio engineering brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force ten radar station operators had been taken for marine rifle positions. “Each operator has more than two years of experience, but no one asked for their opinion. After receiving the information, three military men made certificates of care and resigned, three went into SCZh”. It is strange that there were only three! On February 2, the Assembly received the following information: "In our military unit, in the summer, you could still officially go abroad on vacation. Then two of us didn't return and the unit commander forbade us from going abroad on vacation... and I was transferred from the Air Force to the Land Troops at zero [front line], and it took me 7 days to figure everything out. And I went into SZCh. And then a buddy policeman picked me up in his car, he drove from home. If it weren't for him, I wouldn't have left there. They would hit the brake at every checkpoint, but the [service] certificate decides. He gave me a ride home. If only it had been to the border... I was going from the Zaporizhzhia region, the checkpoints there are crazy. We had many guys who went into SZCh on their own, then they were caught at the checkpoint and sent them back to the infantry on the move to zero [to the front line].” Since the interlocutor is still in Ukraine, we will not give other details.

Against this background, individual rebellions receive a particularly strong resonance in the media. According to the Rivne Regional TCR, during the check of military registration documents on February 11, unknown persons of mobilization age inflicted bodily harm on their employees and damaged transport. Despite the arrival of the police, the attackers fled and are wanted. The next day, according to the Kharkov Regional TCR, in some district enlistment office of Kharkov their serviceman was sprayed with tear gas and injured with a knife. The suspect was detained by the cops.

Two examples of workplace struggle from women convicted by local courts of Kharkov on November 19 and on February 12. In the first case, some controller of the Kharkov metro automatic checkpoints, according to the investigation, messaged at least 8 times from November 2023 to April 2024 in one of the Telegram chats how the enlistment teams operated at the subway station. The judge found the woman guilty and sentenced her to five years in prison with a three-year probationary period. She was released from custody and her cell phone was confiscated. Another one from February 2022 to August 2024 supposedly stole 10 sets of earrings, 19 rings, three necklaces and two chains from the Quetzal jewelry store. The total amount of material damage caused to the entrepreneur for whom she worked was 2,281,581 hryvnia (about $55 000). "She disposed of the jewelry at her own discretion. In the courtroom, the accused fully admitted her guilt. She noted that she had drawn the appropriate conclusions for herself and that this would not happen again," the court verdict states. She was sentenced to five years in prison and was taken into custody in the courtroom, she must also pay the store owner 2,281,581 hryvnia in material damages and 56,796 hryvnia in favor of the state for conducting expertises.

The loudest story of this winter occurred in the usually quiet Lubny district of the Poltava region. On January 31, a resident of Poltava, Yevgen Shcherbak, was being transported to a military unit for training, accompanied by servicemen from the district enlistment office. Intend on evading service, he called his relative's partner, Vadym Kuzub, from Lubny and told them the bus route. During a stop in Pyriatyn, the Lubny resident in a grey balaclava and pixelated pants killed one of the guards with a hunting rifle he had brought with him. Shcherbak and Kuzub disappeared with the dead soldier's automatic rifle. However, the next day the head of the regional police reported their arrest. The two men were born in 1984 and 1988, respectively. Unconfirmed rumors suggest that the shooter previously served in the territorial defense at road checkpoints.

Piryatin shooter Vadim Kuzub on trial. From the state TV

The murder suspect Vadym Kuzub admitted his guilt at a court hearing on February 3, confirming that he had helped his woman’s relative escape. According to him, he wanted to scare the guards, but he failed, and then he fired his weapon. "The ambulance arrived about 40 minutes later, and he died quickly. I didn't know that he had died, I thought he was alive. I didn't want to kill him, I just wanted to take Shcherbak Yevgen." The shooter's lawyer, Valery Masyuk, said that his client is actively collaborating with the investigation. Yevgen Shcherbak, who fled from the enlistment agents, is now charged with obstructing the activities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Both are in custody without the right to bail.

There are not as many stories from the army of the neighboring chamber as there were in our previous piece about this. For example, the Telegram channel "Atesh", working for Ukrainian intelligence in Crimea, on January 2 gives the following information from its agents: “They report that in the village of Lazurnoye in the Kherson region, Russian occupiers are complaining about a sharp increase in the number of breakdowns of equipment arriving at the repair base. The Russians suspect that the growing number of breakdowns of watercraft (boats and jet skis) is due to deliberate sabotage by the Russian military themselves. Russian military personnel are increasingly choosing sabotage as a way of survival, which disrupts the plans of the Russian military team to use these watercraft to force the Dnieper.” They narrate about how the watercraft are disabled in a post on December 9: “The number of cases of sabotage among Russian military personnel is growing, aimed at avoiding being sent to storm the islands in the Dnieper delta. Soldiers intentionally break engines, puncture rubber boats and even transmit coordinates to the Ukraine’s Defense Forces about the location of boat bases and fuel reserves. It is known that three service investigations related to sabotage have been recorded in the 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces. For the Russian command, this has become a real problem.” On February 1, another channel of the Ukrainian special services, "I Want to Live", posted photographs and data of a group of Russian convicts from the 1437th Motorized Rifle Regiment. According to the post, at least 8 stormtroopers went on the run near Pokrovsk. "In short, we have some deserters here. They are hiding behind that they are the 300th [injured], they want to storm something, take a car and come to Selidovo, so the situation is quite serious. Now I will give you their call signs if they introduce themselves (…) These are dangerous people, warn anyone nearby if possible,” says the voice on the audio recording.

Nikita Posmetukhov. From the VK page

On February 10, the Southern Military District Court reported on another incident in the battles for the Dnieper delta in the Kherson region. Corporal Nikita Posmetukhov from the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the RF sentenced to life imprisonment for the murder of four colleagues, including two officers. On the night of November 28, 2023, Posmetukhov was drinking with his fellows, then took an assault rifle and went to the command dugout, the document says. When he knocked on the door, patrolmen called out to him. He started shooting at them and killed a junior sergeant. Then he got into the dugout and shot a lieutenant colonel, captain and private (they were sleeping at that moment). After that, the shooter was detained by two privates. As noted in the document, the attacker got angry at Captain Komarovsky, which was not killed or wounded. He applied disciplinary punishment to Posmetukhov and promised to send him to the assault unit.

Overall, our our forecast from last year is being confirmed step by step. The number of Russian assaults and their pace of advancement since the start of 2025 have dropped sharply, the trend seems too long and strong to have been caused only by the weather conditions. It appears that the drop is due to peace talks, during which the Russian authorities hope to achieve a deal with the new administration of US President Donald Trump.