Egypt - Reaction to Morsi and MB seizure of power

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blackstone
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Jul 3 2013 23:33

BREAKING: Egypt's military chief says president is replaced by chief justice of constitutional court. Morsi has been overthrown.

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Ed
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Jul 4 2013 10:23

So I guess the question now is whether the army will run the gauntlet of popular protest and make a grab for power itself; or whether it will actually try to sort out new elections to get some stability again.. tbh, I have no idea.. I'm highly doubtful as to how much the army/this interim leader (who was a judge under Mubarak!) really believe in the principles of democracy, but maybe in the interests of regaining some kind of stability in Egypt (and therefore stability for capitalism in Egypt) then they might actually try to sort out new elections.. though they might also try and sort out stability in the way military coups often do it..

Any thoughts?

Ablokeimet
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Jul 4 2013 15:10

The generals show what they think of criticism:

Egypt's military shuts down news channels:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/2013740531685326.html

And the hypocritical "liberals" support them:

Quote:
Speaking to Al Jazeera English, National Salvation Front spokesman Khaled Dawoud defended the move.

"Unfortunately these are exceptional circumstances," he said.

"I don't believe closing down any newspaper or any channel is a useful measure ... but we are going through a very critical time here, the situation is dangerous.

"I hope this is an exceptional measure that will last only for a few days, but when you have a critical time of change like this and you have some other people who are trying to incite supporters to go and fight I don't think it is useful to have these channels working at these critical hours."

The army made itself unpopular really quickly last time. The generals were hailed (ignorantly) by many as national heroes when they gave Mubarak the boot, but they didn't take long before they were seriously on the nose themselves. They made a smart decision and allowed elections to happen. Morsi got elected and has proceeded to make the Brotherhood seriously unpopular. Indications are that the Salafists have also stayed in the same boat, so they suffered as well. Now the generals have stepped in again - and only a fool would believe that their popularity will last long. Their best chance is to follow through on their initial promise and organise prompt elections - so the winner can carry the can for unpopular decisions.

What's going on, then? Well, in the immortal words of Bill Clinton, "It's the economy, stupid".

Egyptian capitalism is in deep doo-doo. There is a massive budget deficit, military spending is untouchable and much public spending goes on inefficient things like subsidising petrol and other consumer items (petrol being a particularly poor choice, because the greatest benefits go to the small percentage rich enough to run cars). The IMF is imposing tough conditions on an important loan (surprise, surprise!). Given that the people of Egypt are fed up with neo-liberalism after a decade or two of it from Mubarak, whoever holds power can expect to cop serious unhappiness.

To ram through the unpopular program necessary to restore the health of Egyptian capitalism (or at least to give it a shot at returning to health, global financial crisis willing and the creeks don't rise), the capitalist class needs one of two things:

(a) A government with a strong popular mandate and credibility in the eyes of the electorate; or

(b) A military strongman who has a clear program and will brook no opposition, forcing the working class to pay the cost of the crisis.

Option A has been blown out of the water by Morsi's tenure in office. The Brotherhood was the only political party that had a credible chance of accumulating the necessary credibility to take difficult decisions, but Mursi has demonstrated that they are vicious, mendacious and bumbling. Having come to power with 52% of the vote on a 52% turnout, and facing an opponent who was effectively a Mubarak stooge from Central Casting, Morsi has done everything wrong.

Option B, however, is also in doubt. The only thing that is known to unite the generals is the desire to retain a political veto and an unlimited military budget. There is no evidence as yet that anyone in the military has an economic program that could possibly succeed, let alone that person being able to unite the military behind him. The fact that the military have immediately decreed early elections is a sign that, at least at this stage, they have no firm program to implement. They would rather have a civilian politician put up a program and take the heat.

The social crisis will intensify. A couple of days ago, after the generals laid down their ultimatum but before the coup, I decided that the slogan had to be "Morsi out! Generals stay out!" Now that the generals have stepped in and the liberals are backing them, it is up to the working class movement to take an independent position. We have to be in clear opposition to all wings of the capitalist class and stand forthrightly for workers' power. There is not the time to build an opposition to the new elections the military have announced and it is also not necessary to campaign against them. The new politicians will discredit themselves in short order. What is necessary is to build institutions of workers' power in the workplaces, so that when the new government, whatever its political persuasion, tries to make the working class pay for the crisis, they fail. And we, the workers, can put forward our own solution - libertarian communism.

Ablokeimet
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Jul 5 2013 04:35
iexist wrote:
ablo: are you from egypt

No. Click on my username for more info. My use of the first person plural is because I am trying to adopt the perspective of the global working class.

bastarx
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Jul 5 2013 05:37
Ablokeimet wrote:
iexist wrote:
ablo: are you from egypt

No. Click on my username for more info. My use of the first person plural is because I am trying to adopt the perspective of the global working class.

Don't, it makes you sound like a x admin: no flaming .

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Jul 5 2013 14:00

Further to arresting Morsi, issuing warrants for arrest of top 300 MB leaders and shutting down their press, etc, it now appears the army have opened fire on an MB demo outside the place where Morsi is supposedly being held, killing at least one.

BBC: Egypt troops kill pro-Morsi marcher

At this rate we could be heading into an Algerian-style nightmare. All very depressing.

I would agree with Ablo's post above in the sense that the underlying pressure is economic and there doesn't appear to be any political force or actors on the immediate horizon that have any will or capacity to address that in anyway. Which makes Egypt different from Brazil or Turkey where the economic capacity to address popular grievances actually does exist. At least that's how things appear from a distance of 4000 kms away...

baboon
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Jul 5 2013 17:08

I don't think that the army has ever been away in Egyptian politics and I think that their open support for the protests was the result of a pragmatic contingent decision by the Americans. The leader of the US Chief of Staffs, General Dempsey, was on the phone to his contacts in the Egyptian army last Sunday. I agree that the root of the protests are economic, bread and jobs, and that the social crisis can only intensify. That demands more than the combativity and solidarity of the protests and a move to organisation and consciousness - at whatever minimal levels to begin with and even with all the attendent confusions the working class has to get involved as a class to take this situation forward.

There's a tendency for capitalism's wars to become more and more irrational and fragmented, as Syria shows. One can't predict here but my opinion here is that the bourgeoisie will do everything they can to keep Egypt integral and the working class on its side could have a say in this - even with the dangers of nationalism. On Newsnight July 3, an ex-US ambassador to Egypt pointed out what none of the BBC reporters on the ground had mentioned and that was that there were as many anti-American slogans and banners as anti-Morsi. Though anti-Americanism in itself can be limited, many of these slogans said things like 'US - backers of terrorism' which, given the US and British backing of the Muslim Brotherhood to maintain order in the region, are not far from the truth.

The protests and the removal of Morsi are a blow to the growing imperialist role of the Brotherhood, its backers in Qatar (including al-Jazeerah) and particularly to its British and American backers and advisors. Assad in Syria and Qatari's Saudi rivals have both expressed favourable reactions to Morsi's removal showing what a nest of diverging imperialist vipers the Middle East is. But, as divergent as its interests are here, no one, not the "international community" of the west, the Russians, nor the Iranians, want to see such protests on the streets. I don't know how this will pan out but my first instinct that in these protests there is the potential for positive developments - with pain of course.

Harrison
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Jul 5 2013 21:16
iexist wrote:
Can anyone give me links to info about anarchists in Egypt

theres a bunch about on the first egypt thread, also here
http://www.anarkismo.net/article/19666
http://libcom.org/forums/organise/egypt-libertarian-socialist-movement-3...

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ocelot
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Jul 5 2013 22:56

AJE blog says military have arrested Al-Shater

baboon
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Jul 6 2013 12:06

A couple of other observations:
I think that, whatever their specifics, whatever their weaknesses and so on, these movements in Egypt are part of an international wave of struggle that has a very strong working class component. There's a lot of vapid talk about the "middle classes" joining the protests but the bourgeoisie calls any worker who is not living in abject poverty "middle class". So I'd defend the international nature of this movement against misery, oppression and unemployment and I'd also defend its class constituent - even if the workers are getting involved mainly as individuals at the moment. I think that this movement began in France 2006 amongst youth which quickly brought in older generations of workers and it has since appeared in the Americas, Europe, particularly Spain, the Middle East and Asia. It is an international phenomenon and it has seen old, young, religious, non-religious, men, women, fighting side by side against the state.
The second observation I want to make is that of a military coup in Egypt. For a coup to happen the army must step in but it's never stepped out. I exaggerate somewhat, for dramatic effect, but the closest to a "coup" in this situation was the Pentagon overruling the State Department and the latter's support for Morsi. I think that the US army acted adroitly in its "advice" to the Egyptian military. This advice was well-taken because over time, Morsi and his clique has been more concerned with the politics of the Muslim Brotherhood than with the national interests of the Egyptian state. He'd just consolodated Hamas, for example, into the Qatari-led British and US backed anti-Assad, anti-Iranian front and has been more concerned with issues like this rather than the economy.
Open repression against the protesters, a favoured strategy of the MB, would have opened up the situation for even wider and deeper protests.
The reactions from Erdogan and Tunisia show the potential fault lines across the region.
The situation is dangerous in Egypt but it's not entirely negative.

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ocelot
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Jul 8 2013 12:46

This is not good.

AJE: Massacre in Cairo deepens Egypt crisis

Quote:
A deadly shooting at the site of a sit-in by Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Cairo, demanding the reinstatement of ousted President Mohamed Morsi, has left dozens of people dead.

The Egyptian health ministry said at least 42 people had been killed and more than 300 injured in the incident early on Monday morning.

Mohamed Mohamed Ibrahim El-Beltagy, a Brotherhood MP, described the incident during dawn prayers after police had stormed the site, as a "massacre".

About 500 people were also reportedly injured.

A doctor told Al Jazeera that "the majority of injured had gunshot wounds to the head".[...]

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Entdinglichung
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Jul 9 2013 13:56

according to http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/aegypten-buendnis-des-alten-regime... the new ruling bloc is a coalition between old Mubarak supporters and Salafists backed by the military ... the same forces which ruled before 2011

Mark.
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Jul 9 2013 22:58

Interview: anarchism, Tamarod and sexual violence in Egypt

-----

Signs of post-coup repression affecting the anti-Morsi side:

Quote:

Police used teargas to disperse Zamalek's hardcore fans from outside the Supreme Court in Cairo on Tuesday.

Hundreds of Zamalek's Ultras White Knights (UWK007) gathered outside the court near Cairo's Tahrir Square to demand the release of the group's leader, Sayed Moshagheb, who was detained on Friday.

"Sayed is still being detained after 24 hours and we don't know where he is or why he was arrested," read the latest statement on the group's Facebook page which has over 300,000 fans.

"We will not leave until we know where Sayed is. Our demonstration is peaceful. We call on all fans to gather to pressure the authorities.

"We will not allow any political party to use our protest for their own interests. This is a continuation of the January 25 Revolution and its principles."

Some arrests were made at the protest, according to media reports.

Source

teh
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Jul 10 2013 06:02

Noteworthy that when vacillating about the causes of the latest massacre the interviewee mentions the view that this is exactly what the Ikhwan did in the Maspero massacre. The army defense for their shootings of Christian protesters then was verbatim to its defense now: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maspero_demonstrations#Response .

Also when asked about the Tamarod the interviewee says:

Quote:
"My problem with Tamarod, is that they had time to come up with some sort of alternative after overthrowing Morsi, but they never did! They had no clear plan of what would happen once he was out."

But Tamarod did have a plan and it was exactly what the army carried out. From about a week before the coup:

Quote:
Opposition political and revolutionary forces, led by the "Rebel" (Tamarod) campaign, launched Wednesday the 30 June Front, a coordinating political body to organise planned protests Sunday, as well the political demands of the protests.....

The political roadmap proposed by the Front includes full authorities afforded for an independent prime minister who represents the January 25 Revolution on the condition that he does not run in the first upcoming presidential or parliamentary elections.

“The independent prime minister will head a technocratic government whose main mission is to put together an urgent economic plan to save the Egyptian economy and to expand social justice policies,” said Abdel Aziz.

He also hinted that the premier would not be from drawn from among well known politicans.

“The head of the High Constitutional Court would be assigned the duties of the president according to protocol when all executive powers are assigned to the prime minister in a six-month transitional period that ends by presidential elections judicially supervised and monitored internationally, followed by parliamentary elections,” the Tamarod co-founder added.

Dissolving the Shura Council, suspending the current constitution and drafting a new constitution are steps in the roadmap proposed by the newly founded Front.

According to the proposed roadmap, the prime minister will call on the National Defence Council to do its job in keeping with the national security needs of the country.

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75034/Egypt/Politics-/Tamar...

"Honestly, had it not been for the army intervention, it would have been much, much worse." is especially problematic as is - in response to a question on their opinion of the events after the 30th - "I think it's one step toward ridding ourselves of a scenario driven by fanatics."

bastarx
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Jul 10 2013 07:14

Is the army trying to start a civil war?

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Entdinglichung
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Jul 10 2013 08:20

a few voices from the Egyptian left: http://links.org.au/node/3424

Mark.
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Jul 10 2013 10:18

Sarah Carr: On sheep and infidels

Ablokeimet
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Jul 10 2013 11:24
Entdinglichung wrote:
a few voices from the Egyptian left: http://links.org.au/node/3424

17 million people on the streets! That comes out at 20% of the population. This demonstrates two things:

(a) The coup was an act of self defence by the military. A movement this large would have broken the Army if the Generals had sided with Morsi.

(b) The Muslim Brotherhood are finished as a political force and a massive blow has been delivered against political Islam.

There is much that is still up in the air and the military repression will undoubtedly be turned on the labour movement in due course, but as I said before, the Egyptian economy is in deep doo-doo and nobody seems to have a program to fix it.

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ocelot
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Jul 10 2013 11:36
Entdinglichung wrote:
a few voices from the Egyptian left: http://links.org.au/node/3424

Wow. The different pieces from the Revolutionary Socialists in that collection (quite apart from the failure to acknowledge their own participation and support for both the National Salvation Front and the Ikhwan) are completely contradictory and incoherent. The last one is just mad:

Quote:
Occupy the squares: stand firm in the face of the conspiracy by the Brotherhood and America
Statement from the Revolutionary Socialists in Egypt

July 6, 2013 -- During days that rocked the world, millions of Egyptians poured into the streets and forced their institutions to remove the failed president. Mohamed Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood had betrayed the principles of the 25 January 2011 revolution and overthrown its goals.

But the stubbornness, stupidity and criminality of the US-backed Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed Badie, its General Guide, open the terrifying horizons of civil war. [...]

So... it's a US-(Zionist)-MB conspiracy... don't mention the army...

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ocelot
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Jul 10 2013 13:23

AJE

Quote:
[...]Meanwhile, one of the leading critics of Morsi's government, the United Arab Emirates, has pledged $3bn in loans and grants to Egypt's new government.

The Gulf state alleges that Islamist groups backed by the Muslim Brotherhood have sought to topple its Western-backed ruling system.

Saudi Arabia also approved a $5bn aid package to Egypt, which is to include $2bn in central bank deposits, $2bn in in energy products and $1bn in cash.

Guardian: Egyptian state media backs military action as rival organs attacked

Quote:
Foreign media outfits perceived as being sympathetic to Islamists are being attacked, with CNN and al-Jazeera TV singled out for hostility. The US news network has been vilified by protesters as being pro-Brotherhood, partly because it described the military's move as a coup.

In one very public display, al-Jazeera Arabic's Cairo director, Abdel Fatteh Fayed and his crew were ejected from an army press conference on Monday after Egyptian journalists in the room chanted "Out! Out!". The Qatari-owned satellite TV network has long been accused of partiality towards Islamists across the Arab world.

Later 22 employees of its Cairo bureau announced their resignation after security forces raided the premises. Wesam Fadhel accused the channel of "lying openly" about events in Egypt. Anchor Karem Mahmoud said the staff had resigned in protest against "biased coverage."

Although it's a bit of a side issue, one of the things that has been interesting since the coup, has been the public appearance of clear blue water between Qatari, on the one hand, and Saudi and UAE policy, on the other.

rooieravotr
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Jul 10 2013 16:23

Ocelot writes:

Quote:
one of the things that has been interesting since the coup, has been the public appearance of clear blue water between Qatari, on the one hand, and Saudi and UAE policy, on the other.

That is not new. On the Syrian war, we see something similar. Qatar tends to support the Brotherhood which is a force within the Free Syrian Army and the opposition coalition connected through that. Saudi Arabia distrusts the Brotherhood, and tends to support independent - generally even more openly Islamist/Salafist) groups. There seems to be a rivalry between Qatar ans Saudi Arabia how to influence events in the region in and after the Arab Spring wave of protests and revolts: frontally opposing it (the Saudi line) or trying to take it over through the Brotherhood (the Qatari line, wich Aljazeera as megaphone). Now, that divergence had reached Egypt as well, apparently.

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Khawaga
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Jul 10 2013 16:50
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(b) The Muslim Brotherhood are finished as a political force and a massive blow has been delivered against political Islam

Erm, not even close. The MB has been, and will most likely continue to be the largest and most well organized group in Egyptian civil society. Their organization is massive and is essentially a copy of a Leninist party with good cadres. While they've been weakened no doubt, the MB will continue to be a player. Indeed, if they are allowed to run in new elections they would be one of the largest parties if not the largest. They are far from being finished as a political force.

Mark.
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Jul 11 2013 16:31

From Tahrir ICN (edited slightly):

No MB, no army: the revolution continues

So you are confused? Maybe because the complexity of every society is confusing, especially in its turning points and the process of change. Anyway let’s try to answer some questions and accusations which emerge now and provide another perspective on the current situation.

First. Was it a revolution or not? Yes, it was and still it is. When you see 30 million highly motivated people on the street, you cannot talk just about the isolated decisions of power holders. Tamaroud is a grassroots movement, even though its aims are reformist and it gained the quick support of main opposition players which each wanted to gain benefits from changing the situation (it is obvious and was obvious, we exist in reality), and without this support the movement wouldn’t be so successful. It was Tamaroud which pushed society and political parties to take more radical steps against the Muslim Brotherhood. It was the will of people to depose Morsi due to his failure to deliver on any of the promises of the revolution. And even though it has turned into a military coup, it was the will of people who push the army to change its position and declare itself against Morsi.

Second. Was it legal to depose Morsi, or not? What is this question! From an anarchist perspective it is irrelevant. Our aim is for direct
 democracy, about freedom of the people to emancipate themselves from the oppressive structures of power that seek control and dominate them. It is not about occasionally celebrating freedom of choice among offers given to us from the elites and then granting them a temporary immunity for doing their businesses. Again, there were 30 million people on the street wanting Morsi to step down, and people have the right to kick out whoever they want, whenever they want. They don’t need to wait four years for another day of artificial freedom of choice.

Third. Conspiracy theory. It’s boring. It’s boring repeating the same scandalous scheme, of people masturbating themselves with finding another evident proof to discredit whatever happens as the result of secret manipulation. It’s nothing to be excited with. Power holders will always seek to co-opt and control the course of events to serve their own interests and maintain their hegemony and dominance. Arabs not only have to face the reality of years of European colonialism and US imperialism but also face new local struggles as regimes which have been in power for decades are toppled and new actors via for power and control over the people. The reality of the strength of US imperialism in the region, also precludes the possibility of any one coming to power without making a pact with the devil (US) which will seek to benefit from the situation emerging on the ground in any way possible. But to be honest we are sick of these Western-centric and somewhat racist arguments thats Arabs cannot be agents of their own destiny without the US dictating the course of events. The simplistic  vision of the world of conspiracy theorists brings with it a deeply hidden  belief in the lack of ability of people to decide by
 themselves and present them as just marionettes activated by strings held by a few influential demi-gods playing their virtual game. It also brings defeatism putting into question all efforts undertaken to change the world. So better stay at home? For when you go out for sure USA will use it.

Fourth. Was it a military coup? Again the question is largely irrelevant, what is clear is that the army has seized power (although it was never really out of power in the first place). Although we stand firmly against the army, we have to admit that the  intervention of  the army was cheered by the people, for a number of reasons. Taking the streets on 30th June, people, while motivated to stay until the fall of Morsi, expected nothing but blood, felt risk of civil war, and confrontation with Islamist militias, so  the army entering onto the scene gave them some relief. We can accuse them, of course, but if you prefer a picture of people storming the presidential palace by themselves, go there and die. Also, although people united themselves against Morsi, it doesn’t mean that this people are really united, that they are not fractured, that there is no contradiction in goals between various groups and even hostility. So ceding the job on the
army was also seen  as preventing this unity from being broken by running for particular interests before finishing the fight against Muslim Brotherhood. Finally also, like in any other country, the majority of the society do not want a deep change but slight reforms and will cling to any opportunity to ease themselves from the political burden and return to their private home lives. For revolutionaries, they just cannot fight at the same moment both with Islamists and the army. It would be a suicide. To confront the Islamists it was necessary at least  to keep the neutrality of the military forces. Making them a target now would prompt the army to keep its alliance with Muslim Brotherhood and all the people’s movement would be crushed. It should be seen just as another stage of the revolution. The people fight the Islamists today, and soon it will be the time for the army. The revolution continues.

Fifth. Was Tamaroud movement revolutionary? Of course not. It was obvious since the beginning. They were clear in their goal – just a new election and new constitution. And despite having  respect for their ability to mobilize the people this «crown of the youth» does not want to go further than classic democracy. As it was said before, most people just want reforms and it is exactly due to its non-radicalism that Tamaroud could gain the support of such a wide section of the people. And exactly because of this it got a support from all the main opposition parties who just saw for themselves an opportunity to get their seats in the parliament quicker than they could have done otherwise. It was also not surprising their support for the army. In the end all parties want just  to seize power and to achieve  it  they need their apparatus of repression and they needed a deal with the army. Yet, just as it was needed for the Muslim
Brotherhood to come to power, to discredit political Islam in Egypt and possibly for the region, now it is time for people to see that oppositional parties or control of the army cannot provide any positive change in their lives. Hopefully the people will come to see that no form of representative democracy can bring bread, freedom and social justice.

Sixth. Fuck the SCAF! We will never forgive. We will never forget. Now again we have the rule of the army. Actually the rule which was never broken and was just temporarily shared with Muslim Brotherhood. The army again dominates the street presenting its executive power though arial acrobatic displays supposedly in the name of the people.  We remember the abuses of the army against all who expressed their disappointment or even simply dared to show themselves on the street. We remember the battles of Mohammed Mahmoud St., forced virginity testing, brutally beaten the Blue Bra girl and military trials. It is not lost on us the irony that 2 years to this day, millions of Egyptians were in the squares across the country trying to reclaim the revolution and calling for the military junta to go. We do not cheer the army’s crack down on Islamists. The attacks which the army carries out on Islamists today will be attacks on anyone not comfortable enough for the regime tomorrow. All those  who call themselves anti-authoritarians, should oppose state brutality whenever and against whoever it occurs. It is a false that all Muslim Brotherhood supporters are peaceful demonstrators, many came to streets with weapons and attacked the people. But likewise it is not true that all Muslim Brotherhood supporters are crazed thugs that throw children from rooftops. Women and children are at pro-Morsi demonstrations too, they feel disenfranchised that their vote means nothing. At the end of the day, political Islam may (or may not) have now been defeated as a political force, but the reality is that it still has many supporters and we need to find a way to avoid conflict which could lead to a bloody civil war. In a longer perspective, this what Islamists have to face today, will work for them tomorrow and crushing them unconditionally down will produce in them feeling of victimness and veneration of martyrs which will after explode with much much more power than now.

The army is the strongest institution in Egypt and its the most difficult pillar to overcome. There was no time for this now, but without
 overthrowing the military junta and destroying all its structure, will be no change in oppressive character of the state, both internally and externally. The last agreement of cooperation between the Egyptian and Israeli armies in the Sinai and destruction of the tunnels to Gaza show that there is no will to change Egypt’s politics in Middle East. The new power in Egypt has turned away both Palestinians entering the country and Syrians who are seeking desperately needed refuge. We cannot talk about freedom and justice until Egypt stops its shameful participation in oppression against Palestinians.

But the revolution is not finished yet. There is no point to announce its death or to count  1st, 2nd or even 3rd ones. This is all part of the same revolution with its stages, turning points and complexity. It is only during the first days of any rebellion that people unite as one happy family. After, all diversities will come to the surface again. Egypt has 80 million  people and a rich political, religious and ideological diversity and even within the revolutionary camp there are a lot of contradicting, intertwining and overlapping goals and ideas. There are no chocolate box revolutions. Struggle is a complex, long and often brutal process. The best use of our energy is not to dissect all the competing power struggles at play and intellectually pontificate over them. But to give support to the anti-authoritarian tendencies within that process in the hope that they will strengthen and grow. Yes, the revolution is confusing. But it’s normal. To have a clear vision wait 100 years to get your schoolbook.

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Khawaga
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Jul 11 2013 17:46
iexist wrote:
How likely is a 3 way Egyptian Civil War:

anti MB and anti army masses (anarchists, socialists ETC) vs military and "liberals" vs MB

The scenario you're describing is unlikely, but a civil war of some sorts is somewhat likely. Already there's trouble in Arish in northern Sinai, though nothing new there really, but what is happening there will like start happening in Upper Egypt. A repeat of early 90s when Jihad I groups fought against the Egyptian govt. is the most likely civil war scenario. Plus bombs in tourist locations since it severely hurts tourism.

Mark.
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Jul 11 2013 18:12

The Spanish version of Vice magazine has an interview with the Black Bloc:
Qué significa la destitución de Morsi para el futuro del black bloc en Egipto (which translates as 'what the overthrow of Morsi means for the future of the Black Bloc in Egypt'). From this it's clear they don't take an explicitly anarchist position, as is spelt out in an earlier interview:
El Bloque Negro de Egipto no quiere ser tu amigo.

Quote:
What does the Black Bloc represent ideologically?
The Egyptian Black Bloc has diverse opinions and and does not adhere to a specific ideology. Obviously a similarity exists with the European black blocs, and we share some of their basic ideas.

Mark.
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Jul 11 2013 19:03
ocelot wrote:
Entdinglichung wrote:
a few voices from the Egyptian left: http://links.org.au/node/3424

Wow. The different pieces from the Revolutionary Socialists in that collection (quite apart from the failure to acknowledge their own participation and support for both the National Salvation Front and the Ikhwan) are completely contradictory and incoherent. The last one is just mad:

Quote:
Occupy the squares: stand firm in the face of the conspiracy by the Brotherhood and America
Statement from the Revolutionary Socialists in Egypt

July 6, 2013 -- During days that rocked the world, millions of Egyptians poured into the streets and forced their institutions to remove the failed president. Mohamed Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood had betrayed the principles of the 25 January 2011 revolution and overthrown its goals.

But the stubbornness, stupidity and criminality of the US-backed Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed Badie, its General Guide, open the terrifying horizons of civil war. [...]

So... it's a US-(Zionist)-MB conspiracy... don't mention the army...

Interview with Gigi Ibrahim from the Revolutionary Socialists. She seems soft on the coup...

Mark.
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Jul 12 2013 09:56
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CAIRO — The streets seethe with protests and government ministers are on the run or in jail, but since the military ousted President Mohamed Morsi, life has somehow gotten better for many people across Egypt: Gas lines have disappeared, power cuts have stopped and the police have returned to the street.

The apparently miraculous end to the crippling energy shortages, and the re-emergence of the police, seems to show that the legions of personnel left in place after former President Hosni Mubarak was ousted in 2011 played a significant role — intentionally or not — in undermining the overall quality of life under the Islamist administration of Mr. Morsi.
[...]
Working behind the scenes, members of the old establishment, some of them close to Mr. Mubarak and the country’s top generals, also helped finance, advise and organize those determined to topple the Islamist leadership, including Naguib Sawiris, a billionaire and an outspoken foe of the Brotherhood; Tahani el-Gebali, a former judge on the Supreme Constitutional Court who is close to the ruling generals; and Shawki al-Sayed, a legal adviser to Ahmed Shafik, Mr. Mubarak’s last prime minister, who lost the presidential race to Mr. Morsi.
[…]
Mr. Sawiris, one of Egypt’s richest men and a titan of the old establishment, said Wednesday that he had supported an upstart group called “tamarrod,” Arabic for “rebellion,” that led a petition drive seeking Mr. Morsi’s ouster. He donated use of the nationwide offices and infrastructure of the political party he built, the Free Egyptians. He provided publicity through a popular television network he founded and his major interest in Egypt’s largest private newspaper. He even commissioned the production of a popular music video that played heavily on his network.

“Tamarrod did not even know it was me!” he said. “I am not ashamed of it.”

He said he had publicly predicted that ousting Mr. Morsi would bolster Egypt’s sputtering economy because it would bring in billions of dollars in aid from oil-rich monarchies afraid that the Islamist movement might spread to their shores. By Wednesday, a total of $12 billion had flowed in from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. “That will take us for 12 months with no problem,” Mr. Sawiris said.

Ms. Gebali, the former judge, said in a telephone interview on Wednesday that she and other legal experts helped tamarrod create its strategy to appeal directly to the military to oust Mr. Morsi and pass the interim presidency to the chief of the constitutional court.

“We saw that there was movement and popular creativity, so we wanted to see if it would have an effect and a constitutional basis,” Ms. Gebali said…

Source

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ocelot
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Jul 12 2013 15:48
rooieravotr wrote:
Ocelot writes:
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one of the things that has been interesting since the coup, has been the public appearance of clear blue water between Qatari, on the one hand, and Saudi and UAE policy, on the other.

That is not new. On the Syrian war, we see something similar. Qatar tends to support the Brotherhood which is a force within the Free Syrian Army and the opposition coalition connected through that. Saudi Arabia distrusts the Brotherhood, and tends to support independent - generally even more openly Islamist/Salafist) groups. There seems to be a rivalry between Qatar ans Saudi Arabia how to influence events in the region in and after the Arab Spring wave of protests and revolts: frontally opposing it (the Saudi line) or trying to take it over through the Brotherhood (the Qatari line, wich Aljazeera as megaphone). Now, that divergence had reached Egypt as well, apparently.

This AMAY article is interesting in this context:

Qatar losing Mideast ground to Saudi diplomacy: experts

Quote:
The ouster of Egypt's Islamist president Mohamed Morsy last week by the army and the election by the Syrian opposition of Saudi-linked Ahmad Assi Jarba as new leader stripped Qatar of strong influence in both countries.

"Qatar had tried to take a leading role in the region but overstepped its limits by openly backing the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Syria, and other Arab Spring states," said Kuwaiti political analyst Ayed al-Manna.

Jonathan Eyal, head of international relations at Britain's Royal United Services Institute, argued that Qatar's regional politics have failed.

"Qatar's Middle Eastern diplomacy now lies in ruins: it failed to produce dividends in Libya, backfired in Syria and has now collapsed in Egypt," local Emirati daily The National quoted him on Tuesday as saying.

Realising the damaging effects of their policies, Manna noted, "the Qataris sought to cut down on their commitments" which were already affected by the emir's abdication and the sidelining of the influential prime minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jabr al-Thani.

As a result, "Saudi Arabia, a historical regional US ally, regained its role" in coordination with other oil-rich Gulf monarchies, said Manna.

[...] the two countries, whose relations have been historically tense or at least marked by mistrust, support two different approaches of political Islam that emerged strongly in the wake of the Arab Spring.

Qatar sides with political parties linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, whose experience was cut short despite the strong media support they enjoyed from the influential Doha-based Al-Jazeera news channel.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia promotes Salafist groups that focus less on politics and more on implementing Shariah Islamic law on daily life matters such as forcing women to wear a veil and prohibiting the mixing between sexes.

Looks like the US have rowed in behind Saudi and the Salafis.

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klas batalo
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Jul 13 2013 06:43

anyone else notice the "Tamarod" copycats in Tunisia, Morroco, Palestine, etc???

is this the Occupyzation of the movement? or perhaps another Optor?

baboon
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Jul 13 2013 10:28

I agree with the posts above that defend the idea that the Muslim Brotherhood is far from finished. It remains a formidable organisation, well-structured and an organised base with a popular (to its constituency) welfare programme.

I reject the idea that it's racist to see imperialism at work in the Middle-East in the form of the actions of the major powers. Britain particularly has been backing the Muslim Brotherhood and the Obama administration backed the Morsi government. Given the role of the major powers in Egypt, the imperialist war in Syria and their machinations throughout, it's one more element pointing to the fact that the enemy is at home, ie, Britain, France, the US, Russia and so on. This internationalist perspective is the opposite of racism.

This is a blow to the MB though and the $12 billion that they provided to the Egyptian regime last year has now been replaced by another twelve made up of Saudi and UAE money (see The Guardian today). The longer term perspective is the confrontation with Iran but, given the nature of imperialism, that doesn't stop the Iranian rivals from falling out with each other.